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It's back to the drawing board for the UBP

Most independent observers said Michael Dunkley and the UBP fought an excellent campaign – which must make it all the more galling for UBP strategists working out where to go after three straight election defeats and the loss of the party's leader.

First they must now settle on a new person at the helm – the fourth in just two years.

But the problems clearly go far deeper leaving the Opposition wondering what they can do to break the 50 percent barrier and regain power.

The individual candidates could not have tried harder. Wayne Scott practically wore away the skin on his knuckles banging on doors in Warwick North Central for two years – but he was swept away by a late appearance by local legend El James.

And you would be hard-pressed to find a better candidate than Gina Spence-Farmer to counter Dale Butler's grass roots appeal but her efforts were in vain.

Kenny Bascome, the Deputy Mayor of St. George's, again failed to winkle out Jennifer Smith from the seat she has worked so hard to nurture over the years.

Local activist Albertha Waite, who had helped block an unpopular housing scheme in Devonshire, seemed like the perfect choice to oust Glenn Blakeney but again she fell short.

The list goes on. Arguments will rage over which party stole which party's policies during a gruelling and often dirty election campaign.

In the end they are academic. Voters trusted once again the PLP to deliver on help for seniors, child care, education, housing and crime.

And no doubt when another post-election post-mortem begins in UBP HQ attention will be paid to how many slipped away because of the UBP's immigration policy.

An independent Royal Gazette poll showed only a tiny fraction of voters were concerned about it halfway through the election.

But three paragraphs in the UBP manifesto were perhaps enough to sink the party which had been gaining on the PLP through the campaign.

Whether it was 800 or 8,000 the message appeared to have hit nerves that had been calmed over recent years.

While the UBP's campaign was often soft focus with TV adverts featuring candidates sitting around shooting the breeze and scoring the occasional political point the PLP won it with a brazen campaign hitting racial nerves.

Again the Opposition will have the debate about whether it would have done better with a black leader and then debate about whether picking on that reason smacks of tokenism.

The PLP had no such problems – it knew its base and tailored its electioneering at emotions as much as it spoke about politics.

Southampton West Central candidate Marc Bean declared to the party faithful: "If they have the opportunity they (the UBP) will lock all of us up. It's true."

And St. David's candidate Lovitta Foggo went one further when she claimed in front of rally of supporters in St. George's that: "A UBP vote is a vote back to the plantation. It is a vote that will return the shackles to our feet!"

Yesterday Dr. Brown said it had been an election of high emotions and it appeared to have paid off.

Some will say it's time for a change of name. Or even time to pack up and go home.

UBP strategist David Sullivan said the whole idea of a party giving up because it had lost was ludicrous.

He said: "It's like saying to the Democrats because they lost an election they should give up."

Certainly Bermuda's winner-takes-all electoral system tends to reward the winner disproportionately with the PLP taking 52.3 percent of the votes but taking 61.1 percent of the seats while the UBP got 47.2 percent of the votes but took only 38.8 percent of the seats.

Last night UBP chairman Shawn Crockwell said he wanted to see Bermuda move away from the politics of race to the politics of issues but admitted race had once again led to the defeat.

He said: "We need to heal as a country. This campaign has caused a chasm in Bermuda."

And he conceded the party has to go back to the drawing board.

"It seems very obvious that when the issue of race becomes predominant the UBP cannot gain any ground.

"If you have an electorate that is predominately black and they feel an allegiance to what is viewed as a black party it is always difficult to win."

And he said it meant it was difficult for the Opposition to hold the Government accountable if it held a racial get-out clause.

"We have to make some major decisions. It would be easy to say let's try again next time but we need to find solutions."