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Quiet hurricane season so far — but peak period approaching

Hurricanes: Peak season approaching

Despite a slow start, the 2013 hurricane season could still have a major impact as the peak of the season approaches.While no Atlantic storms have reached hurricane strength, the Bermuda Weather Service (BWS) said yesterday the season is expected to get more active soon.Meteorologist James Dodgson said yesterday: “We are now approaching the climatological peak of hurricane season, and with the official hurricane season continuing through November there is still plenty of time for development to occur.“As we (BWS) say every year, it only takes one hurricane to make it a busy season for Bermuda. Now is a very good time to review your hurricane preparedness plan.”The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would be more active than average due to warm waters in the Atlantic and the lack of ‘El Nino’ conditions.Early forecasts suggested as many as 19 named storms, with around nine reaching hurricane strength. So far this year there have been only five named storms, none of which have reached hurricane strength.In the last 30 years, there have been only three years in which no hurricanes formed before the end of August; 2002, 2001 and 1984.Mr Dodgson said that so far this season meteorologists have reported large areas of dry air and Saharan dust across the tropical Atlantic region, both of which hinder hurricane formation.However as August nears a close, signs indicate that the season will become more active. Surface pressures in the Atlantic basin are low, water is warmer than average, Saharan dust outbreaks have diminished and the African easterly jet has become more active.“This jet, or wind in layman’s terms, drives tropical waves westwards across the tropical Atlantic,” Mr Dodgson said.“These waves are clusters of thunderstorms that form over Africa, move westwards over the tropical Atlantic, and under the right conditions are the precursor to tropical storms and hurricanes.”