Just last week Bermuda was patting itself on the back as the end of what had been forecast to be be a slower-than-normal hurricane season approached. Once again it looked as if we might run the annual June-November gauntlet without experiencing the wrath of Mother Nature in the calamitous form of a tropical cyclone.

Then Tropical Storm Fay abruptly crashed our party.

With maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour and hurricane-force gusts of up to 120 miles per hour, Fay managed to black out fully half of the Island, tear the roofs of houses and down trees and utility poles when it passed over Bermuda early on Sunday morning.

Now, before Bermuda has even finished clearing up from the unexpectedly severe hammering Fay administered, Hurricane Gonzalo is bearing down on us.

It may well have grown into a monster Category 4 storm by the time it approaches Bermuda on Friday morning – packing sustained winds of between 130 and 156 miles per hour with even stronger gusts. Category 4 is the second-highest classification category on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

It has been 11 years since a “major” hurricane – one of Category 3 strength or higher – made a direct hit on Bermuda. And 2003’s Hurricane Fabian proved to be the most destructive storm in our history, causing an estimated $300 million in damage. There were four deaths as a result of Fabian, the first storm casualties here since the 1926 Havana-Bermuda storm drowned almost 100 seamen.

The last storm of any consequence to pass directly over Bermuda prior to Fabian was Hurricane Emily in 1987. And Emily, by way of comparison, was a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of between just 74 and 95 miles per hour.

Still, Emily left a $50 million swath of devastation in her path. More than 200 homes and commercial buildings lost their roofs, including the airport. Cars were flipped and boats were tossed up onto roads by incessant, hammer-blow waves. A cruise ship slipped its moorings: cast-iron bollards tethering the Atlantic to Front Street were ripped out of the concrete and the vessel was blown halfway towards Foot of the Lane before the engines were engaged and a likely grounding in the shallows narrowly avoided.

Bermuda residents had gone to bed the night before Emily struck unprepared for impending disaster.

Emily had lost strength the previous day as it moved over the open waters of the Atlantic and forecasters had confidently predicted the system would deteriorate into a tropical storm by the time it arrived in our area.

Instead, what took place defied “our knowledge and the concept of meteorology” said the US National Hurricane Center in the aftermath of Bermuda’s bruising experience with a resurgent Emily.

The storm gained strength even as it picked up forward speed, with winds increasing from 70 to 80 miles per hour as it raced toward Bermuda from the Caribbean. A high-pressure front along the US East Coast of the United States was blamed for the hurricane’s abrupt intensification.

“ … There are certain limitations of our forecasting ability,” said the Hurricane Center.

There are things we cannot forecast. This is a perfect example of our limitations.”

Bermuda’s unexpected experience with Emily confirmed the fact that the only thing genuinely predictable about tropical storms is their unpredictability.

With thousands of residents still powerless as a result of Fay, the timing of Gonzalo’s arrival could not be worse. Belco has already been in contact with CARILEC, the organisation of Caribbean electric utility companies, about bringing in additional crews to assist with anticipated additional restoration work in the storm’s aftermath.

Bermuda residents need to follow the utility’s lead.

A lack of awareness and preparation can have deadly consequences when a tropical storm is threatening the Island. And Gonzalo is far from your average storm.

As a matter of urgency residents need to buy essential hurricane supplies such as candles, batteries, and non-perishable foods, to fill bathtubs and extra containers with water, and ensure their cars and motorcycles have full gas tanks. Those with storm shutters or plywood coverings need to dig them out of the garage now and ensure they are secured.

They also need to remember threats posed by hurricanes take many forms – storm surge, heavy rainfall, flooding, high winds, tornadoes and vicious rip currents.

We were caught off guard by the intense, hurricane-force gusts Fay brought to the Island. There’s no excuse for not being ready for the potential pounding we might receive from Gonzalo. Lives could depend on being properly prepared.

In a bittersweet historical irony Gonzalo takes its name from a character in William Shakespeare’s Tempest, a play inspired in part by the great 1609 hurricane which led to the accidental settlement of Bermuda by survivors of the Sea Venture wreck.

That drama, of course, used the term “still-vex’d Bermoothes” to describe the boiling, wind-whipped seas around the Island encountered by that Virginia-bound party.

Four hundred years later, this vivid metaphor has lost none of its power or applicability. Those who have experienced such storms can vouch for the unrestrained fury of a hurricane; those who have not should ready themselves as best they can.