The hopes of local construction emerging from its decline are pinned to an alarming degree on major hotel projects becoming a reality, according to company head Alex DeCouto.

Even as some industry sources see a tentative turnaround this year, Mr DeCouto told The Royal Gazette that fourth-quarter statistics for 2014 had been “not very comforting”.

“The construction market remains in flux,” said the Greymane Contracting president. Dockyard builds linked to the America’s Cup are not big enough to replace major construction projects that had propped up a faltering industry, he said.

“Obviously there remains hope that new projects in the pipeline will come to fruition, but in terms of real growth, I don’t see anything more than anecdotal evidence,” Mr DeCouto added.

“In the construction industry in particular there are winners and losers; some firms may be busy but others may not be. That’s the trouble with anecdotal evidence. It might not give you the full picture.”

According to the Department of Statistics, the estimated values of work soared almost $60 million over the previous year, to $190.9 million, for 2012 — only to fall to $147.8 million for 2013, and $116.1 million for last year.

The tumble for new housing was even more precipitous: 393 new units built in 2011 fell to 228 for 2012, down to 117 for 2013 — and just 88 new residences in 2014. With the end of two sizeable projects of recent years — Hamilton’s Waterloo office block and the construction of a new hospital wing — contractors are keenly awaiting vaunted new projects promised to bring $900 million into Bermuda in the coming two years.

Mr DeCouto said he doubted anyone could argue that the Island was experiencing “unprecedented new lows in terms of volumes for the last two decades”.

“Whether or not we are truly on an upswing and not still bouncing around at the bottom remains to be seen,” the former head of the Construction Association of Bermuda said — even as current president Charles Dunstan told this newspaper that he had been surprised by the activity seen thus far in 2015.

“I would be much more confident if two or more of these large hotels got off the ground,” Mr DeCouto continued.

“Given jobs figures, and some suggestion that these recent international business mergers will shed lots of white-collar jobs, I remain more bearish than anything.”

Mr DeCouto’s remarks came as yesterday’s edition of The Bottom Line quoted architect Colin Campbell reporting that Bermuda’s 1998 figure of 2,000 unoccupied residences had doubled by 2014.

Any more units would merely add to the surplus, Mr Campbell said.

He added that more product had been created than could be filled by natural growth — and urged the Island to “open up the doors and get immigration going”.