The thawing of relations between the United States and Cuba could pose a threat to Bermuda’s tourist industry, an expert has warned.

However, Leonard Jackson said the Island’s appeal to wealthy holidaymakers and relatively low crime rate was cause for optimism in an increasingly competitive market.

The United States and Cuba restored diplomatic relations in July, after President Barack Obama called for Congress to lift its embargo in his State of the Union address last December.

The embargo, which came into effect after Fidel Castro rose to power in 1959 and adopted a pugnacious approach to American interests, remains in place for the time being.

But with the countries having reopened embassies on one another’s soil, amid other conciliatory gestures, it appears only a matter of time before American citizens can enjoy unrestricted travel to Cuba.

Dr Jackson, a director of hotel finance and investment at Georgia State University, will give a free lecture tonight from 6.30pm to 9pm at the Bermuda College North Hall lecture theatre (G301) on the anticipated boom of visitors to Cuba, and its knock-on effect for the Caribbean and Bermuda.

Fidel Castro, now 89 and in ailing health, handed the presidential reins to younger brother Raul in 2008. Raul has taken a more level-headed approach to international relations, which in turn has helped to restore amicable ties with the US.

“It’s an evolving political landscape,” he said, stressing that the American public’s hostility, in his experience, was aimed towards Fidel Castro rather than the island nation itself.

The Jamaican-born Dr Jackson said the passage of time had also helped both countries, as age-old tensions failed to transfer down the generations.

“‘Millennials have no connection with the Cold War and its politics,” he said. “Furthermore, they’re very powerful and they think it’s socially irresponsible to isolate countries.”

He foresees mass tourism coming to Cuba within 18 months, as American tourists give in to curiosity surrounding the country.

“The mystique and intrigue of being a colonial country for 50-plus years: that’s what will drive people to Cuba,” he said.

“Cuba has all the resources that the Caribbean islands and Bermuda have. It has natural beauty, more than 2,000 miles of coastline, colonial architecture and a diverse and distinct culture,” added the 47-year-old. “They also have a well-established arts and entertainment industry, they have opera, jazz and world-renowned Latin musicians.”

But he insisted that Bermuda boasted several aces up its sleeve compared to several of its nearby counterpart destinations.

“Like all the Caribbean destinations, Bermuda will lose some market share with the rise of Cuban tourism,” said Dr Jackson, “although it’s also somewhat protected, as people who go there tend to be affluent.”

“Plus it doesn’t suffer from a high crime rate like some other Caribbean destinations such as Jamaica, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

“Cuba also doesn’t have a high crime rate relative to those islands - but with mass tourism that can change. They will have to set up safeguards.”