Early forecasts have predicted a slightly busier than average hurricane season this year — and experts warn that a single storm could be significant.

In their annual forecast, Colorado State University has estimated that the Atlantic will see about 12 named storms, with six reaching hurricane strength and two becoming “major hurricanes” reaching at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile, the American-based Weather Channel has predicted about 14 named storms, with eight reaching hurricane strength and three becoming major hurricanes, making it the busiest season since 2012.

While the start of the Atlantic hurricane season is still more than a month away, there has already been one hurricane this year — Hurricane Alex, which was the first January hurricane since 1978.

Rob Howlett, meteorologist at the Bermuda Weather Service, said yesterday that it was still somewhat early for seasonal forecasts.

“In many ways it’s best to stick to the climate averages; 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes,” he said. “Many of these preliminary hurricane season forecasts are hovering around those figures anyway.”

He said early forecasts appeared to be noting several factors, including the transition from an El Niño period to a neutral, or La Niña, phase.

“Typically, this means less wind shear and more favourable conditions in the main development region for tropical cyclones,” he said.

“We already see anomalously cool waters spreading west from South America along the equator, which supports this phase change.”

He also noted anomalously cool waters in the far North Atlantic, which he said potentially indicated a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation — an ocean current believed to affect water temperatures — and less favourable conditions for development.

“These large-scale circulations are assumed to balance out to an average season, but this is certainly subject to change,” he said. “We’ve already seen Hurricane Alex develop out of season in January, which goes to show the variability of tropical cyclones.

“Of course, it only takes one hurricane landfall to make an active season and residents should always be well prepared regardless of any seasonal forecast.”

The Atlantic hurricane season is set to begin on June 1 and continue until November 30.

Last year was a reasonably quiet year for hurricanes in the Atlantic, with 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes. In September, Bermuda had a close call with Tropical Storm Henri, which passed to the island’s east shortly after forming.

A month later, Bermuda prepared itself to face Hurricane Joaquin. While the storm battered the Caribbean as a Category 4 storm, it weakened to a Category 2 storm before reaching Bermuda.

And while 2014 was considered a slow year for hurricanes internationally, Bermuda was less fortunate as the island was struck by both Hurricane Fay and Hurricane Gonzalo within the period of a week in October.