No one would have been surprised that the Progressive Labour Party retained its seat in Constituency 26. Warwick South Central is a PLP stronghold and a prized seat that has played host to two PLP leaders, one as premier.

However, the margin of victory in this by-election increased, as it did in the previous by-election this year, which may be indicative of what is happening in the broader electorate. Certainly, there is no indication that the One Bermuda Alliance strongholds have weakened, which does not matter because elections are won and lost in marginal constituencies.

What these by-elections do indicate is the enthusiasm in the voter bases, which generally spreads throughout the electorate. Anyone in the PLP camp would be encouraged because the past few by-elections show an eager and motivated voter base. The lack of enthusiasm among the OBA base, even in a constituency such as Warwick’s Constituency 26, means a significant chunk of that support base is not highly motivated. If I were the leader, I would be trying to figure out what has caused the shift for this to go so wrong.

Putting a stoic face up against an unfavourable position may help one not to overreact or panic, but it does not change reality. Nor does the myopic tendency to bring out the whip with calls of unity when even a united base is too small.

Fear-based arguments with statements that begin with “can’t they see” or “anyone would be stupid” in portraying the PLP as a danger to the economy and insinuating that the supporters would be dumb for returning to the party that put the country in debt are not working. A message with any chance of gaining traction needs to be one of hope not fear.

The challenge for the OBA going forward is to broaden the tent. Its initial success in 2012 was actually a hope for change that resulted in the collateral strength of a combined voter base, which included disaffected PLP supporters, many of whom stayed home rather than vote. You cannot maintain that collateral support by calling them stupid.

When we sum it all up, it always comes down to a perception of personal benefit or “how does this election affect me”. A campaign message must be one that speaks to the hopes and dreams of people.

Negative campaigns, while they may bring out some important facts and truths for consideration, do not work better than a convincing message and well-backed plan that sells the promise of a better life. A negative portrayal becomes truly a negative to be avoided, only when you have a positive message that inspires hope.

Posturing or empty words will not suffice in this emotionally charged political atmosphere. Clear reasoning with strong programmes aimed at the economy that boost jobs and provide opportunity and inclusion is the only message with any chance of attracting support.