American-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast a near-average Atlantic hurricane season, but note “uncertainty” in the usual climate signals.

In a statement yesterday NOAA predicted a 70 per cent likelihood that the Atlantic experiences ten to 16 named storms.

Of those named storms, four to eight could become hurricanes while one to four could become major hurricanes, reaching Category 3 strength or above.

“While a near-normal season is most likely with a 45 per cent chance, there is also a 30 per cent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 per cent chance of a below-normal season,” the statement continued.

The statement also noted that Hurricane Alex, which blew through the North Atlantic in January, was included in the estimations.

Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, said: “This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development.

“However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.”

The statement noted, however, there is a degree of uncertainty about the status of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, an ocean temperature pattern that is believed to cause increased hurricane activity during its “warm” phase, and La Niña, a weather system associated with increased hurricane activity.

The statement came as the body was watching a subtropical system southwest of Bermuda which was expected to become the second named storm of 2016.

James Dodgson, acting director of the Bermuda Weather Service, said that while some contributing factors made it difficult to accurately forecast how busy the season would be, even a single storm could have a great impact.

“The best advice BWS can provide, in association with any of these seasonal forecasts, whether they suggest an active or inactive year, is to always be prepared, no matter what the numbers are saying,” he said.

“It only takes one tropical cyclone (tropical storm or hurricane) to make it a busy season for Bermuda, with potential significant impacts.”