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Forecast is fine as Kimberley begins her reign as Weather Service director

Kim Zuill Recently took up post as Bermuda Weather Service's new director. (Photo by Mark Tatem)

Meteorologist Kimberley Zuill was entering her first year of high school when Hurricane Emily took a devastating toll on the Island in 1987.The then 11-year-old could remember waking up and getting ready for school, but once she stepped outside she could feel the hurricane force winds swirl around her. She saw a tree fall on the guest house right next to her and admitted to being in “complete awe” about what was transpiring.“I didn’t understand weather at that time, but I sat back and watched as the satellite dish in our yard got completely crumpled and thrown three yards over,” she said.“But even then I wasn’t afraid. I had a lot of faith in the strength of our houses, which was naive because many houses were damaged by that hurricane.”Mrs Zuill took up the post of new director of the Bermuda Weather Service (BWS) this month. A long-time lover of science, she started her career as a forecaster trainee in 1997 when she took an 18-month certification course at the Caribbean Meteorological Institute in Barbados.She later completed a distance education degree in environmental studies and geography with the University of Waterloo, while still working operational shifts at BWS.Mrs Zuill said Hurricane Emily, which celebrates its 25th anniversary this month, was the event that first piqued her interest in the weather. It also taught her to respect the powerful and often volatile nature of the elements.“It was barely a Category One hurricane, but it remains at the forefront [of local people’s minds]. When people are talking about hurricanes, the two they will remember is Hurricane Emily and Hurricane Fabian,” she said.According to Mrs Zuill, very few people were prepared for the natural disaster on September 25, 1987. It started out as a tropical disturbance that moved off the west coast of Africa, but quickly attained hurricane status and began to intensify rapidly. By the time it was tracked northeastward through the Atlantic Ocean, it was slated to pass directly over Bermuda.“Back then, communication was the problem because the forecasters could see the system was changing the night before, but they couldn’t communicate to the public because they didn’t make the news [in time].“Everyone would watch the evening news and then go to bed, but how do you prepare the public after they have gone to sleep? People woke up the next day to the hurricane happening in the morning hours and by the afternoon it was all done.“So that’s what has instilled in me the sense that communication in vitally important so that our public is prepared. If people were prepared for Emily there would have been less destruction,” she explained.Mrs Zuill said it was one of her missions to give people as much information possible about the weather, so they can make the best decisions to protect themselves, their homes and their families.One of the most frustrating parts of the job was when people did not take head to the warnings, Mrs Zuill explained. “There is definitely a large portion of the population who respect the weather, but we also have people who may be very focused on their day to day operations and don’t fully understand the risks and uncertainties involved in some of the systems that can come towards us.“One would hope people would take it seriously and not be on the road when the height of conditions are festering.”She commended the public for responding well to the warnings for last weekend’s Tropical Storm Leslie. Leslie came only days after Mrs Zuilll began her new role as director and was one of the top three most difficult storms to predict in her career.The BWS staff had three meetings in lead up to the storm, instead of the usual two. She said the storm was stationary for a couple of days, which made it challenging to determine its path.Mrs Zuill said the new role had added pressures and responsibilities, but as deputy director for the past three years she already had a good taste of what those would be like.She said she hoped to change the long running joke that weather forecasters often get their predictions wrong; she admitted that BWS was continually striving to improve communications to the public.Right now there are various types of products to show what is happening with the weather — from website text, graphics and imagery to television and media updates.She said: “Forecasting is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle every day, but you don’t know what the picture is until the day of or the day after.“There are so many pieces of the puzzle and you really don’t have a clear understanding until it’s happening because it’s ever evolving, especially in our location which is data sparse.”She said it was rewarding when they got it right, considering the fact it’s an inexact science and art.“You are trying to take really complex parameters and communicate to the public in a way they understand so they are safe, and because of the uncertainties in certain situations when you do get it right it feels amazing.“Everybody remembers the forecasts that aren’t correct, but they generally don’t remember when we get it right. For our 24 hour forecasts we are anywhere between 85 and 95 percent correct on average.”She said it was also rewarding working with a dedicated team of staff. When the general public is preparing their homes before a storm, staff at BWS are working hard to monitor the weather and pass on information.During Hurricane Fabian forecasters were forced to work back-to-back shifts — and eat, live and sleep at the station — because the Causeway had closed and other staff couldn’t come to relieve them.“The dynamics of the weather service in that situation is we are an essential service and if you are on lock down you are prepared to stay the long haul if you don’t have relief coming in.“In order to get a team of people ready to do that can be challenging, but I am very pleased the BWS has great staff and we are able to deliver on our promises in our contract.”Useful website: www.weather.bm