Confidence is growing that an economic recovery is under way in Bermuda, according to a long-standing quarterly survey.

The Bermuda Omnibus Survey reveals that more than half of people — for the first time since well before the Island’s five-year recession began — believe the economy will get better over the next 12 months.

The findings were shared by Richard Moseley, the chief executive officer of one of the survey’s sponsors, HSBC Bermuda, who said in an interview with The Royal Gazette there were several key factors that could drive the long-awaited return to economic growth.

In particular, he mentioned growth of existing businesses and an influx of new ones, hotel projects and infrastructure, and an uptick in the real estate market.

He made the point that strengthening confidence could translate into catalyst for investment and that more than a third of people surveyed (35 percent) said they believed the economy had improved over the past year.

However, while the survey showed confidence returning, it also found no significant increase in the proportion of people who felt their household was economically better off than last year.

Bermudians’ major concerns have changed over the past three years, according to the survey. Three years ago crime was seen as the most important issue facing Bermuda — since then it has been overtaken by both the economy (which scored 38 percent in the first quarter) and employment (21 percent). Crime has fallen to five percent.

The Bermuda Omnibus Survey, conducted by Total Research Associates Ltd, is the result of telephone interviews with a representative sample of 400 Bermuda residents, and is considered accurate to within plus or minus 4.9 percent.

In his role as the head of a local bank, Mr Moseley is well placed to see any ‘green shoots’ that may be popping up.

“Among the professional firms, there is a sense of an uptick in activity compared to a year ago,” Mr Moseley said. “New company formations were up 17 percent in the first quarter.”

While that trend was already translating into jobs for lawyers, he expected it to eventually produce broader and larger scale employment.

“I’m convinced that some incorporations will result in a physical presence,” he said. “What the economy needs is more people, spending more money and providing more jobs.”

Making that happen would require close cooperation between Government, regulators and the private sector, he said. The Bermuda Business Development Agency (BDA) and the Bermuda Tourism Authority were examples of private-sector expertise being leveraged in the effort to attract business to the Island, he added.

Last October’s amendment to the Investment Funds Act, designed to modernise the regulatory framework to make it faster, easier and more cost-effective to set up a fund on the Island, had been achieved through such a collaborative approach and was already bearing fruit in the asset management industry, he said.

Typical new start-ups would be small operations, employing five to ten people, Mr Moseley said. Advances in technology and communications meant international companies no longer needed to base large staffs here.

He felt there was a good understanding on the Island of the international business “multiplier effect”, with the dollars earned by people brought to Bermuda being circulated in the economy, generating prosperity and jobs among the providers of services and goods.

Mr Moseley was also optimistic about the prospects for hotel development on the Island.

“We’re very pleased to see what is happening with the old Club Med and to see the interest from other potential developers,” he said. “The catalyst was the acquisition of the Princess and the old Sonesta site by the Green family.”

Developments at the Pink Beach Club and Elbow Beach had been announced in recent months, adding to the momentum, he added. “People are coming and talking to us,” he added when asked whether the bank was seeing interest from developers seeking financing. The next stage would be to see ground being broken on major developments, he added.

Infrastructure represented another hope for economic growth in the near future. Government’s proposals for infrastructure projects, including the redevelopment of the LF Wade International Airport, represented a way of attracting foreign investment to the Island, as well as giving a shot in the arm to the construction industry. HSBC, with its international network, expertise and experience of such projects in other countries, was ready and willing to help, Mr Moseley said.

Last week, Mr Moseley attended the Bermuda Captive Conference at the Fairmont Southampton Princess, which attracted a record number of nearly 750 delegates.

“People are looking very carefully at potential domiciles — they’re no longer automatically coming to Bermuda,” he said. However, Bermuda was scoring highly in their assessments of jurisdictions.

“They talked about the quality of professionals but also the proximity element was very strong,” Mr Moseley said. “Bermuda is a place where you can get a lot done in a short space of time — and also have a good time. I was very encouraged by the buzz at the conference.”

Banks in Bermuda and around the world are being widely criticised for lending less than they could — and thus not playing a more active role in economic growth themselves. Bermuda banks’ loan books are not growing this year.

This was down to a lack of demand from qualified borrowers and the fact that “lending standards have been brought back into the real world and are no longer at the exuberant levels where they were five or six years ago”, Mr Moseley said.

HSBC Bermuda had a strong pipeline of potential borrowers who had applied for mortgages and who qualified — but who were holding back on making the house purchase. There seemed to be more certainty in the market in the $800,000 to $1.2 million bracket than in the condominium market, he added.

“All the banks have a real appetite to lend,” Mr Moseley said. “There is more than $1 billion in capital invested in this business and so we would very much like to see more lending opportunities.”