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BERMUDA | RSS PODCAST

Forecasts predict quiet hurricane season

Damage: Last year’s Tropical Storm Fay proved more of a threat than first anticipated (File photo by Nicola Muirhead)

Early forecasts have suggested a quiet hurricane season this year, but experts warn that even a slow season can be devastating.

While the hurricane season does not begin until June, the US-based Weather Channel and Colorado State University (CSU) have issued early forecasts for the season, suggesting that a combination of cool water in the Atlantic and wind shear caused by El Niño could limit the number of storms.

The Weather Channel has estimated that the Atlantic could see nine named storms this year, five of which could become hurricanes, while CSU is forecasting seven storms with three reaching hurricane strength.

Both outlets have estimated that one of the storms would become a major hurricane — greater than a Category 3 storm — before the season ends in November.

On average 12 named storms form during the Atlantic hurricane season, six of which reach hurricane strength.

The CSU forecast by Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, dated April 9, estimates that 2015 could be one of the slowest years since the middle of the 20th century.

“It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall,” the report states. “The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present.

“We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

“Despite the forecast for below-average activity, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

The Weather Channel, meanwhile, compared the 2015 season to last year, noting that while the season had relatively few named storms it had still made an impact — particularly in Bermuda.

“The 2014 season featured the fewest number of named storms in 17 years (eight), but also featured the strongest landfalling hurricane in the mainland US in six years and featured two back-to-back hurricane hits on the tiny archipelago of Bermuda,” the Weather Channel reported.

“Furthermore, six of those eight storms became hurricanes and Gonzalo was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Igor in 2010.”

Deputy director of the Bermuda Weather Service (BWS) James Dodgson expressed similar sentiments yesterday, saying: “It must be noted that last season was a below average one, yet Bermuda was affected by two hurricanes in one week, making it one of the most active seasons to date for our Island.”

He said that “seasonal forecasts” can change as more data is collected in the build-up to the heart of the hurricane season, urging the public to remain alert.

“The main message is, despite this season currently forecast to be less active than average, it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to make it an active season for Bermuda,” Mr Dodgson said. “Don’t be complacent and keep a close eye on the BWS forecast during this upcoming hurricane season.”