“Your wallet is likely to take a small hit this year and next — but it could see some improvement by 2017.”

Even so, the Island stands to lose hundreds more jobs this year.

Offering the “brutal facts” from the 2015-16 Budget — plus some tentative projections of moderate growth — statistician Cordell Riley gave a guarded economic forecast for the years ahead.

However, several audience members last night at the Bermuda College bemoaned the Island’s lack of fresh ideas when it came to economic recovery.

Businessmen spoke out against local banking practices and bureaucracy, with one lamenting that he considered himself middle class as someone who runs businesses — “but it’s all eaten up by taxes”.

“What we have got to do is put pressure on the elected people that are supposed to be working for us,” added businessman Nelson Hunt. “This is no longer a popularity contest. We’re all broke.”

The Island has heard several references lately to “green shoots” in the local economy, Mr Riley observed. Premier Michael Dunkley recently used the term, along with several local business and finance heads in the past six months.

“The real question is whether that’s enough,” Mr Riley said.

“Sometimes you see shoots coming up and they die; they don’t grow. I think from a political perspective, you want to see these green shoots. But when you start to pull back the data and have a clear look, you start is ask the question — is that really going to happen?”

Bermuda’s population is ageing even as it declines: Mr Riley suggested the Island’s numbers could be down to 61,500 come 2020 — a four per cent drop from 64,130 in 2010.

“Some are estimating that it’s already there,” he added, pointing out that the Island doesn’t keep net migration figures. Without knowing how many have chosen to try their fortunes elsewhere, Mr Riley said, “the truth is we really don’t know”.

Either way, the stakes are high: 2017 is likely to mark the year that the senior population overtakes the Island’s youth population of age 17 and younger, thus increasing the pressure on those of us with jobs.

Mr Riley said local jobs had peaked at 40,213 in 2008 and fallen to 33,487 last year.

Jobs could fall to 32,800 this year before Bermuda starts into recovery in 2016, he said: “We could bottom out in 2015” — but still lose another 700 jobs.

Mr Riley told the audience he preferred the term “rebalancing” rather than cutting when it came to the civil service. Pointing out that all those on the Government payroll are not civil servants, he gave a figure of about 4,200 in that category as of last year.

“It’s a fact that as overall jobs declined, the civil service jobs haven’t declined at the same pace. If they did, we would be at about 3,400 civil servants. But we can’t say let’s cut the civil service — that’s a lesson the Government learnt very recently.” The decision not to renew temporary positions when contracts ran out had seen many reversals, he said.

Even as jobs continue to fall, retail sales have staged a recent comeback, suggesting a resurgence in customer confidence.

It is also possible that the Island has reached the bottom and is starting to climb back out when it comes to air arrivals, which last year stood at 229,484 — a plunge from the 305,548 in 2010.

While the Island is down again for the first quarter of this year, Mr Riley said there was a fair chance that Bermuda could hit 250,000 air arrivals in 2016.

As for debt, the end is still far: by 2017-18, the Island will reach just under $2.5 billion — although that figure could dip to $2.1 billion come 2019-20.

“The operative word is ‘could’,” Mr Riley added. New taxes in services, as yet unspecified by Finance Minister Bob Richards, remain ahead.

Several speakers voiced their frustration at the Island’s lumbering bureaucracy. Investor confidence is creeping back, one said, but “they’re not going to wait around for a third bite of the cherry”.

Bermuda has been complacent over embracing money makers like cannabis and casinos, others said.

“It’s always been said that we’re in this together,” Mr Riley observed. “I think this is one time it’s proving that we are.”