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Three financial aspects to be thankful for

Nathan Kowalski

They call economics the “dismal science”. The world often seems far more interested in the awful things going on rather than positive developments. That’s why we rubber-neck when we see car accidents, but airplane landings never make the news.

Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone I hope all those who celebrate this seasonal break have had a chance to take a moment and think of those things we can be thankful for rather than worry about all the world’s problems.

I’m thankful for friends, family, health and a host of very important facets in my life but this is a financial column. I’m going to take a moment and give you three economic factors that we should all be thankful for. Let’s shake off the tryptophan coma and revel in some positive economic aspects.

1) Bermuda’s economy is on the mend. It’s not really that pretty and the numbers, when one studies the underlying details, are not super robust, but it’s a start.

One example of this tepid but still positive trend is the consistency in car sales. The snap back in demand after years of morbid sales is not surprising but its persistence (with some help from 100 per cent financing) is rather significant. In fact, without motor vehicle sales the 12-month moving average change in retail sales (to August) falls to 1.6 per cent from 3.9 per cent, more than 2 per cent less. Regardless, the statistical bounce is in and growth has thankfully returned for 2015.

2) PartnerRe never got bought. Although a disappointment to some, I think the fact that Axis’s failed bid is actually a huge positive for Bermuda. I shudder to consider the consequential jobs losses that would have resulted in the merger, not to mention the real estate footprint shrinkage and service provider contract losses.

Although I fear further consolidation is likely, the less mergers in the traditional space the better for Bermuda. Be thankful we dodged that one!

3) Commodity prices have been hammered. The drop in commodity prices is a boon for disposable income. A $0.01 change in gasoline is often associated with $1 billion change in energy consumption in the US. This hasn’t translated into significant sales growth yet but may be partially responsible for service growth.

If a lot of the savings from low commodities are saved consumer balance sheets will improve. This is partially what has happened as the US savings rate is now up to 5.6 per cent. Personal finances in the US are in great shape.

In Bermuda the drastic decline in fuel cost is very evident in the inflation data where the trailing 12-month Consumer Price Index increases are hitting the lowest levels in some 40 years (late to mid-70s). Although healthcare is still an issue, lower fuel and power prices should help soften the blow and assist with savings or consumption.

I have numerous concerns when it comes to our Island’s future and its prosperity. Today, at least, I’m cautiously optimistic on a few aspects.

Nathan Kowalski CPA, CA, CFA, CIM is the chief financial officer of Anchor Investment Management Ltd and can be reached at nkowalski@anchor.bm. Disclaimer: This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions vary.