Log In

Reset Password
BERMUDA | RSS PODCAST

Political expediency and economic reality

Day of reckoning: traffic passes by an election sign on East Broadway on the day of the 2012 General Election. As the next election moves nearer, politicians must consider the public mood and expectations, while also guarding against the dangers of short-term stimulus spending that might worsen the Island’s level of debt

Any government interested in being re-elected is always conscious of the circumstances that led to its election in the first place.

The present Bermuda Government campaigned in 2012 on what amounted to a slogan of “Getting Bermuda working again” after four years of accelerated economic contraction and an attendant surge in unemployment, social tensions and crime.

This singular focus was sufficient to win the One Bermuda Alliance a respectable popular mandate, but only the barest minimum of parliamentary seats necessary to form an administration.

The Island’s economic free fall was eventually arrested through a combination of good fiscal management and good luck. But the absence of recession in Bermuda has not immediately translated into economic growth.

Recovery from the protracted recession that began in 2008 has proved to be maddeningly sluggish.

Unemployment and underemployment remain chronic problems, particularly joblessness among pockets of young people who have grown increasingly disenchanted and disengaged from mainstream society,

And now, more than halfway through its term, the One Bermuda Alliance and its supporters must be eyeing the clash between heightened expectations and lacklustre reality with some apprehension.

Some have advised that the Government attack continuing unemployment with a slew of new spending programmes, which would certainly stimulate the economy in the short term.

But the Government, sensibly, has resisted all such calls for unaffordable stimulus packages.

Present levels of public spending are, simply put, unsustainable. Adding to an already impossibly large debt burden with increased borrowing would be both financially irresponsible and morally reprehensible, even if it might be viewed by some as the politically expedient thing to do so.

While unemployment has fallen modestly over the past three years, the reality is it remains stubbornly high at the end of 2015. Meanwhile, the Bermuda stock market is mired at historically low levels. And most of the Island’s leading economic indicators are, at best, anaemic rather than robustly resurgent.

The offshore financial services sector, the once supercharged engine of the Bermuda economy, remains sluggish, with the overcapitalised and increasingly competitive global reinsurance sector expected to continue softening in 2016. The tourism-related economy is similarly flat.

So while this Government did arrest a precipitous and historically unprecedented economic decline, the electorate has yet to see much in the way of a meaningful recovery.

The 2017 America’s Cup, of course, remains the blue-chip centrepiece of the Government’s plan for an economic turnaround.

This international sporting event is intended to draw new infrastructure investment to Bermuda, along with increased expenditure by both the racing syndicates and spectators on hotels, restaurants, taxis, retail and other local services.

The expected jump in economic activity that will result from the estimated $242 million in direct spending likely to be generated over the next two years will certainly create new jobs, new business opportunities and new revenue streams for government coffers.

All manner of indirect economic benefits as a consequence of AC35 showcasing Bermuda to the world are also expected to accrue to the Island in the coming years as well.

The problem from the Government’s point of view is it takes a considerable time for the tangible benefits of recovery to filter through a community, particularly a community as badly affected by recession as Bermuda.

And as any election-minded government is acutely aware, a rising economic tide must not only raise all boats, it must be seen to be raising them all — not just the yachts. The benefits must be shared by all.

Given sailing’s historical reputation as an exclusive and elite sport, it’s not entirely surprising that a fair percentage of Bermudians still remain unconvinced that we will all be beneficiaries of an AC35 economic miracle.

The Government’s frustration with this scepticism is understandable. So is its anxiety that the lag time between a successful AC35 and a fully rejuvenated economy may not be fully compatible with the electoral timetable — Bermuda must go to the polls by the end of 2017, after all.

There are many in the OBA who increasingly feel the Government has laid the groundwork for what’s likely to be a long-term and sustainable recovery.

But, demonstrating the kind of powerfully self-defeating logic, which is certainly not unknown among politicians, some in its ranks also feel the governing party may not be rewarded by voters without the type of short-term, pre-election stimulus spending that has already pushed Bermuda’s deficit to stratospheric levels.

Of course, every additional dollar injected into the economy would first have to be taxed or borrowed out of the economy. And so the whole cycle of binge borrowing and binge spending, which led to the near-collapse of Bermuda’s economy, would begin again.

All politicians, of course, factor the public mood and electoral considerations into their policy thinking. It would be entirely unnatural if they didn’t. In this instance, though, those who would elevate political expediency over economic reality must be shunned.

The Government still has much work to do to ensure that Bermudians not only share in the rewards of recovery but are aware those rewards will indeed be accruing to them in the not too distant future.

And, just as importantly, it is incumbent on this Government to help to make sure that Bermuda’s residents are never again forced to suffer the consequences of what was a largely preventable economic implosion.

The OBA was elected on a pledge to get Bermuda working again. Re-election, no matter how uphill the slog, will certainly not be based on reintroducing, even as a short-term expedient, the very conditions that put so many locals out of work in the first place.