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Bermuda should buck the protectionist trend

Exploiting immigration concern: Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate(Photograph by Robert F. Bukaty/AP)

The economy may be growing again but the number of jobs is not. That was one of the conclusions that could be drawn from the Bermuda Job Market Employment Briefs report published last week.

Based on a survey of employers in the first week of September last year, the report found that the number of jobs fell by 156 to 33,319, marking a seventh successive year of job losses. The good news was the rate of labour-market shrinkage slowed dramatically after the loss of more than 800 jobs in 2014.

The jobs decline occurred despite a pick-up in economic activity last year, indicated by a rise in gross domestic product. Also troubling for the island was the loss of 257 positions held by Bermudians, while the number of guest workers increased by 105.

Yet, whatever the politicians say about the failings of their counterparts — and the employment slump spans a period when each party has had its turn in power — it could be argued that this is a trend that we are demographically destined to continue.

With our rapidly ageing population and low birth rate, the years and decades ahead are likely to see more Bermudians retiring from the workforce than entering it, so it should not be surprising to see the number of jobs held by Bermudians falling. More guest workers will be needed to replace them, or the labour market will continue to shrink.

The demographic time bomb continues to tick and no one can say we have not been warned of the potential consequences. The excellent series by Sir John Swan and Larry Burchall, published in 2012 by this newspaper, made the case that our future prosperity relies on attracting more companies with a physical presence to generate jobs and that “national workforce growth can only be sustained and enabled by adding non-Bermudians”.

They argued that increasing economic activity in Bermuda’s demographic circumstances could only be achieved through major legislative and policy changes to open up the economy and attract more people.

“Either political party must tell the Bermudian people prior to the election how they propose to accomplish this as it is so fundamental to our survival,” Sir John and Mr Burchall argued. As we face another election by late next year, the statement is just as relevant now as it was then.

The ranks of working-age people need to be replenished in order to support government and health services that will come increasingly under strain from the growing number of seniors. The Department of Statistics projects that there will be around 12,000 people over the age of 65 by 2020, up from 8,700 in 2010. The very presence of more people stimulates the local businesses providing goods and services to them, supporting Bermudian jobs in the process.

Despite such logical arguments, the influx of more workers from overseas is still seen by many as a problem rather than part of the solution. Immigration is a sensitive issue and this is not unique to Bermuda, of course.

In Britain, for example, a strong anti-immigrant sentiment — particularly strong in economically deprived areas — emerged in the run-up to last month’s referendum that resulted in the British voting to leave the European Union. The vote came despite dire warnings from numerous economists, the UK Treasury, the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund, among others, of the economic damage that a “Brexit” would cause — with the people in the poorest areas likely to suffer the most.

The phrase “cutting off your nose to spite your face” comes to mind.

Similar sentiment emerged in Bermuda after the Government launched its Pathways to Status legislation. There are numerous differences between Britain’s situation and that of Bermuda. However it is clear that in both countries there is a protectionist element who see foreigners as a threat to their own prosperity. It’s a belief that seems to be gaining traction elsewhere too. Donald Trump has found success in exploiting it in during his US presidential campaign and far-right nationalist groups appear to be strengthening in several European countries, including France and Italy.

While there has been much criticism of the Government’s poor public relations and lack of consultation ahead of the proposing of the Pathways legislation — and justifiably — the conversation about how we can achieve economic growth against the headwind of a declining and ageing population has been far quieter. Addressing that challenge becomes more urgent every day.

Work on immigration reform continues through the consultation groups set up to work through elements of the Pathways legislation to rework it into something more palatable to the community.

But immigration on its own is not sufficient. Only if there is greater economic activity can we hope to attract the talented types we need, people who themselves will stimulate extra employment in the wider economy. That will require new businesses and new investment, for which we must compete with numerous other jurisdictions. To give us an edge in the hyper-competitive global market, we need to create as welcoming an environment as possible. Lowering or modifying barriers to investment like the 60/40 rule will inevitably be part of the conversation.

The work of Sir John and Mr Burchall four years ago deserved to spark a national debate. With a General Election looming next year, now would be a good time to revisit the points they made and to demand more in solutions from those vying for power and less of the hot air.

In an increasingly protectionist world, Bermuda has an opportunity to stand out from the rest by bucking the trend.