Fearing the Trump effect


Almost half of Bermudians believe Donald Trump will damage the island because of his temperament, radical views and tax policies, according to a poll commissioned by The Royal Gazette.

Some 45 per cent of registered voters fear United States President-elect Mr Trump, right, will have a negative impact on Bermuda, with just 8 per cent saying he will have a positive impact, 11 per cent saying no impact and 36 per cent unsure.

The overwhelming majority had been hoping Hillary Clinton would win the election on November 8, with Clinton supporters locally outnumbering Trump supporters by 68 per cent to 7 per cent.

The poll of 400 registered voters by Global Research took place between November 18 and 25 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.

Republican candidate Mr Trump sent shock waves around the world with his victory, following a campaign in which he was accused of capitalising on voters’ economic anxieties and taking advantage of racial tensions, while also overcoming a string of sexual assault allegations.

A breakdown of the Bermuda results on Mr Trump shows race or age have little bearing on the expectation of his impact on the island, but there was more concern among women than men.

The top reasons given were his poor temperament and leadership, irrational decision-making and bullying and dangerous nature, which collectively accounted for 30 per cent of the responses.

Next was the suggestion that he is anti-foreigner, racist, fascist and sexist, which was put forward by 25 per cent of those who said he will have a negative impact. The potentially damaging impact of his tax policies on international business was cited by 19 per cent, with other reasons including his perceived negative impact on the world in general (6 per cent), he is “not for the common man” (5 per cent) and “he will cause the next world war” (2 per cent).

Business leaders in Bermuda have warned the island must be prepared for changes, noting that the Trump administration has identified tax reform as a priority.

Reasons to back Mr Trump were chiefly business related, with 26 per cent of local supporters saying he will benefit tourism and business relations, 22 per cent saying he is a businessman and 22 per cent saying he will positively impact offshore business.

A breakdown of the results shows that among blacks, 45 per cent expect a negative impact, compared with 43 per cent of whites; 7 per cent of blacks expect a positive impact, compared with 11 per cent of whites.

Among women, 50 per cent expect a negative impact, compared with 39 per cent of men; 5 per cent of women expect a positive impact, compared with 12 per cent of men.

Among the 18 to 34 age group, 45 per cent expect a negative impact, the same figure as for the over 65 group; 11 per cent of people aged 18 to 34 expect a positive impact, compared with 8 per cent of over 65s.

In America, Mr Trump claimed 306 electoral votes compared with 232 for Mrs Clinton — although Mrs Clinton took the popular vote, with 65.4 million against 62.8 million for Mr Trump.

In Bermuda, asked who they would have voted for in the US election, 68 per cent said Mrs Clinton, 7 per cent Mr Trump, 2 per cent Bernie Sanders, 1 per cent Independent, 0.5 per cent Gary Johnson and 0.5 per cent Barack Obama. A further 9 per cent would not vote and 12 per cent did not know.

Among whites, 62 per cent would have voted for Mrs Clinton and 10 per cent for Mr Trump; 70 per cent of blacks would have voted for Mrs Clinton and 5 per cent for Mr Trump.

Among men, 56 per cent would have voted for Mrs Clinton and 10 per cent for Mr Trump; 76 per cent of women would have voted for Mrs Clinton and 5 per cent for Mr Trump. Among the 18 to 34 age group, 62 per cent would have voted for Mrs Clinton and 6 per cent for Mr Trump; among the over 65s, 59 per cent would have voted for Mrs Clinton and 12 per cent for Mr Trump.

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Published Dec 12, 2016 at 8:00 am (Updated Dec 12, 2016 at 6:58 pm)

Fearing the Trump effect

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