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News just keeps getting worse for Government

Rolfe Commissiong

We all know that polls are only snapshots of a certain point in time. And we also know that politicians usually say that to comfort themselves when a particularly dismal poll result proves to be unflattering at best and a devastating indictment at worst.

So imagine right now what Michael Dunkley and the One Bermuda Alliance must be experiencing.

As a recent poll indicates, black support for the party itself has plummeted, while at the same time a subsequent poll also published in this paper tends to confirm that the likely reason for the former is because faith in the economy by black Bermudians in particular, has virtually fallen off the radar.

And in a more recent edition of this paper, we found out the reason why the Premier’s nightmares are getting scarier.

That poll that focused exclusively on the economy has found that only 22 per cent of the respondents had faith in the economy, down by 14 percentage points from December 2015.

However, when broken down along racial lines, only 13 per cent of blacks expressed confidence in this economy as opposed to 42 per cent of whites.

Now I do know that those who like to play “white identity” politics in a very sly, yet polite Bermuda way, such as the devoted followers of Michael Fahy, Trevor Moniz, Grant Gibbons and Mr Dunkley, will cry foul. However, with respect to black support for the OBA, it has tanked from the sweet spot of about 21 per cent by way of one of the aforementioned polls — conducted some months ago — to 13 per cent today.

My guess is that the Premier’s own internal polls are saying the same thing. And without greater black support, for the OBA to the tune of say 19 per cent or 20 per cent at least, they cannot win a General Election.

This may explain the Premier’s novel use of his new favourite word: “black”. As in, I care about black people.

And the news just keeps getting worse. Last week, the same polling outfit reveals that with respect to the next hot button issue, the airport redevelopment project, a solid 53 per cent majority are opposed to it proceeding. Only 37 per cent are in favour of the project as constituted at present.

Certainly, the Canadian principals must be of the opinion that it is evolving into a great deal for them and their shareholders. But what of the Bermudian people who are convinced that the project, presented along the lines of a public-private partnership, is just another cute way to say privatisation?

It seems increasingly likely that Bermudians will not take lightly to this deal proceeding. I predict that if the Government and its Canadian principals continue with the project that public disquiet will return with the potential to further destabilise the country — something that none of us want.

Compounding the problem is that finance minister Bob Richards can be just as intransigent as the home affairs minister and now appears to have dug in his heels despite the rapidly evaporating public support.

It seems that Bermudians have done their own cost-benefit analysis of this deal, which will result in most of the revenue generated at the airport being placed in the coffers of a foreign development entity over the next 30 years and perhaps beyond, only to have found it wanting.

It didn’t have to be this way, though, as my Progressive Labour Party colleagues David Burt and Lawrence Scott have made clear.

Scott, the Shadow Minister of Transport, came forward with the eminently sensible and innovative development option, which was to create an “airport authority” that would undertake the phased development of the airport over the next five to seven years.

The finance minister, however, will argue that the key benefit of this model is that it will keep the debt financing of the airport off the government books. That is true in an obvious way, but the cost of doing so is looking more and more prohibitive once one looks under the hood, if you will.

The real test is whether we will be receiving real value in return.

The chief argument against public-private partnerships — of the profitmaking variety — since they took off in the 1990zs is that they quite often benefit the private sector player far more than the governments and/or public entities that enter into these types of agreements.

But if you are a government desperately looking to jump-start anaemic job growth at any cost and to fulfil pre-election promises, that may be a small price to pay.

It is, however, a price that Bermudians could be paying for decades to come.

•Rolfe Commissiong is the Progressive Labour Party MP for Pembroke South East (Constituency 21)