OBA gains public support in poll

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The One Bermuda Alliance has more public support than at any point since coming to power, according to a new poll commissioned by The Royal Gazette.

The ruling party had a 44-38 lead over the Progressive Labour Party, an advantage of six points, in the survey by Global Research from May 15 to 19.

It represents a swing of nine points from six months ago, when the PLP was leading 38-35.

The OBA’s previous best score came in December 2015, when it led 42-30 in the first poll after the Louis Vuitton America’s Cup World Series Bermuda.

Michael Dunkley, the Premier, retains his eight-point lead over Opposition leader David Burt, with both politicians gaining two points since the previous poll in February.

The OBA has a 29-21 lead in the performance approval ratings, up from 24-17 three months ago.

The telephone poll of 400 registered voters has a margin of error of +/- 5 per cent.

It appears the public is gearing up for the General Election, with the survey showing 74 per cent are absolutely certain to vote, up from 68 per cent in February. That figure was 61 per cent last September and 54 per cent in March 2016.

A breakdown by race shows whites have increased their backing for the OBA, and blacks for the PLP.

Among whites, 93 per cent said they would vote OBA, up from 77 per cent; and 1 per cent would vote PLP, down from 4 per cent.

Among blacks, 63 per cent would vote PLP, up from 55 per cent; and 13 per cent would vote OBA, down from 16 per cent.

The OBA now holds both the male vote (46-37) and the female vote (42-40). The ruling party scores most strongly among the over-65 age group, leading by 51-32.

Mr Dunkley’s performance approval rating is 37 per cent, up from 35 per cent. He gets support from 71 per cent of whites and 16 per cent of blacks, up 13 points and down 5 points respectively.

The Premier is backed by 38 per cent of men and 36 per cent of women, while his popularity is highest among the older generation, at 49 per cent, up from 40 per cent.

Mr Burt has an approval rating of 29 per cent, up from 27 per cent. He is backed by 46 per cent of blacks and 1 per cent of whites, up seven points and down nine points respectively.

Mr Richards, the OBA deputy leader, has an approval rating of 25 per cent, up from 21 per cent. He is backed by 52 per cent of whites and 7 per cent of blacks, up nine points and down one point respectively.

Mr Roban, the PLP deputy leader, has an approval rating of 21 per cent, up from 14 per cent. He is backed by 32 per cent of blacks and 3 per cent of whites, up ten points and down one point respectively.

General favourability ratings show Mr Dunkley on 43 per cent, ahead of Mr Burt (33 per cent), Mr Richards (26 per cent) and Mr Roban (23 per cent).

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Published May 25, 2017 at 8:00 am (Updated May 25, 2017 at 12:29 am)

OBA gains public support in poll

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