As this Bermuda Government confronts its toughest challenge yet, all eyes are on Michael Dunkley — with a showdown brewing for this Friday’s sitting of the House.

With Opposition leader David Burt’s motion of no confidence guaranteed support from independent MP Shawn Crockwell, the One Bermuda Alliance and the Progressive Labour Party would both wield 17 votes — leaving fellow independent Mark Pettingill, or Speaker of the House Randy Horton, as the deal maker or breaker. The Royal Gazette discussed scenarios with a constitutional consultant, who declined to be named, on what might auger for the days ahead. While many might assume the Premier would call a General Election ahead of Friday, the drawback for Mr Dunkley would be “looking as though his hand was forced by the Opposition”, the source said.

“It doesn’t bode well for a leader to be forced into doing something he more than likely wasn’t minded to do.

“Even though he might have pre-empted the no-confidence vote, it would suggest that he was running scared.”

While the OBA can tout a successful America’s Cup, “this would in large measure diminish this — it would have been better meeting jointly or separately with Mr Pettingill and Mr Crockwell”.

But last week’s unveiling of Senator Jeff Baron as a candidate for Warwick North East, where Mr Pettingill is mulling running as an independent, muddies the waters.

“Why would he foreclose on Mr Pettingill by running Mr Baron in his seat so early? I don’t see that as politic. What’s the rush?”

Mr Dunkley appears more popular with the average voter than with his own party, the source noted: “He hasn’t done enough to bring his colleagues on board, and so we get periodic rifts and departures.”

While the OBA might not be ready for an early electoral call, Mr Dunkley would likely set it for earlier rather than later.

Even if Mr Dunkley were to successfully face down a vote of no confidence, for Mr Burt “it would still be a politic move, to test Mr Dunkley”.

“That’s why you might hear a certain calmness from Mr Burt. He would simply say, this one failed — but there will be others.”

However, with Mr Crockwell backing the motion, Mr Pettingill would stand to be “the kingmaker — if he votes with the Government, that would defeat the motion”.

“He can win it for the Opposition or for the Government. That’s why it was stupid, politically, for Mr Dunkley to throw a jab at Mr Pettingill at this point. And if Mr Pettingill abstains, the Speaker has to make the decision.”

On the question of the Opposition wooing the independents into joining the PLP, the source described the present mood within the PLP as one of “cautious optimism and a great deal of reticence”.

“Some would relish taking the OBA out of the equation, but some will wonder at what price.”

Offering the two safe seats or ministerial positions would have its own knock-on effect, he said. The Leader of the Opposition “keeps a poker face” — but the inclusion of both independent MPs’ names last month on a brief countering the Government’s civil suit against the Lahey Clinic could be telling, and the suit would be doomed by the PLP retaking the Government.

If the PLP were able to present the Governor with a parliamentary majority, it would serve the Opposition well, the source noted: the House could sit until well into next year before an election would have to be called, leaving the PLP with a considerable spell in power.

A PLP ascent would not guarantee Mr Burt as Premier, however: under section 58(1) of the Bermuda Constitution, Governor John Rankin is tasked with appointing the MP who “appears to him best able to command the confidence of a majority”.