Trying to figure out the impact of electoral reform on the political parties' fortunes at the polls is like reading the entrails of a goat.

Or, as former NLP leader, Charles Jeffers put it when asked to try and identify which constituencies would be strongholds for the ruling Progressive Labour Party (PLP): "It's almost like trying to pin the tail on the donkey - blindfolded."

A number of constituencies once regarded as strongholds of one party or another have either been diluted or strengthened - on the face of it.

But the single seat electoral system and the completely redrawn electoral map being recommended by the Boundaries Commission is sure to throw traditional assumptions about voter behaviour out the window.

For one thing, election candidates will not have running mates to help them share the burden of canvassing and keeping in touch with their constituents - each district will be voting in only one candidate.

That means that candidate quality becomes more important and Independent candidates may have a better chance at getting into the House.

How that all plays out is anybody's guess.

And the traditional assumptions arguably began their journey to the trash heap with the PLP's unprecedented victory at the polls in November 1998.

Add to that the electorate's perceptions of the performance of the first PLP Government.

"Under normal conditions you could have something we could look back to historically," Mr. Jeffers said.

"There's not a thing we could look back on...

"We've got a party in power for the first time, single seats and new constituencies."

At an open public meeting this week UBP MP John Barritt, who sat on the Commission, reminded his audience that the map was primarily drawn up using computer software.

"The opportunity for horse-trading was zero," he said.

And he said that only until the system is actually tested out in an election would the impact be known.

"The real proof is going to be in the pudding," agreed PLP supporter Rolfe Commissiong.

But Mr. Commissiong did venture that the proposed electoral map "opens up some new possibilities".

"Smith's North could be problematic for the United Bermuda Party.

"There are at least 500 or 600 voters on Loyal Hill alone."

In the end, though, the only thing he is sure of is that the media would have to take on a lot of extra staff to cover an additional 16 constituencies at general elections.

Another certainty is that the job of the Parliamentary Registrar would be much more complex, and costly.

Not only will voters have to be informed of where they are voting now, but 16 more polling stations need to be identified, and dozens more returning officers and election officials appointed.

Mr. Barritt is loathe to consider the implications of making any changes to the boundaries or the number of constituencies.

"I hope people don't try to change the boundaries simply because they don't suit them politically," he told this newspaper Tuesday.

"You are never going to know until the day of the election," said UBP party chairman Wayne Furbert.

"At the end of the day it's down to the people.

"So the political pundits may look at certain areas (and come to conclusions) but it's just a pure guess."

He added: "I think it's going to be a different type of election.

"Those that are considered strong may become weak and those that are considered weak may become strong.

"It's not politics as usual."

Despite their insistence that reliable analysis is impossible, MPs have been poring over the map, since it was released last week, to discover the implications and Mr. Barritt himself estimated at a public meeting on Wednesday that the new boundaries contain about ten to 12 constituencies that could be considered marginal.

History would suggest that there are certain areas dominated by die-hard supporters of either one of the main political parties.

Mr. Furbert said as far as he is concerned Hamilton West, where he wants to run, is still a marginal constituency.

But the report, if adopted by the country, would have at least one adverse effect on his chances - his parents would be voting just next door in Hamilton East.

"I lose my parents - at least I could have counted on two (votes).

"Although my wife and children are in the area, I can't always count on them but my parents would never desert me."