Tourism Minister David Allen has predicted a slow but sure recovery for the Island's holiday industry.

Climbing out of the deep trough which has developed over many years will take years to complete, he yesterday told The Royal Gazette .

Speaking as the Bermuda tourism roadshow reached its climax in Atlanta last night, Mr. Allen said they would like to see improvement this year but are looking long term for real growth.

The Minister also revealed that another weapon in the tourism revitalisation plan would come on line next year with the introduction of a fly-cruise schedule.

He believes the week-long East coast tour, which has wowed travel agents and media in Boston, New York, Philadephia and Atlanta, will boost the Island's profile and get people `thinking Bermuda'.

"I would like to see some improvement this year'', he said, adding the projections for May to July look good.

"I am encouraged, but I am also aware that we are climbing out of a very deep pit, which has been in the making for the last 18 years. We have lost 22 percent of our visitors since the early 1980s.

"You don't turn around that kind of decline overnight.'' And the Minister dismissed figures given by a source in the US Bermuda tourism offices, which predicted an 8.5 percent rise -- or 35,000 people -- in air visitors this year.

He said: `Those figures have no relation to anything we have discussed - it is the first time I have heard them and I don't agree with them.

"Whoever it was who gave them was talking off the top of their head.'' Mr. Allen said it would be two or three years before there was any real improvement, and up to five years before a significant turnaround is seen.

The new advertising campaign, due to be launched soon, would reap rewards in conjunction with increased travel agent support -including cash incentives.

A fly-cruise programme is expected to be revealed in the next month as negotiations with three cruise companies draw to a close.

It is expected the weekend cruise ship, tipped for Dockyard, will have -- as a condition of contract -- the requirement for a certain number of passengers to also stay on-Island.

And Philadelphia looks set to get the nod as the origination port when the programme is revealed.

It would mean passengers either flying charter to Bermuda, staying in one of the guest accomodations and then cruising back to the United States, or vice-versa.

Allen looks long term "We want the cruise lines to have a land component; we don't want to totally open the floodgates to cruise ships.

"The ship will come to Bermuda, with some of their passengers getting off and spending three nights in one of our hotels and then flying back.

"It will be a wonderful product for travel agents - this really is a total Bermuda experience and we are looking forward to launching it.'' The idea was well received by travel agents, who see it as another package they can offer travellers looking for new and interesting vacation ideas.

And hoteliers are keen on the plan, which will mean they are not left out when the weekend cruise ship starts.

Canadian Pacific Hotels are pioneers in the field and have successfully sold it throughout Canada.