Hoteliers are predicting a gloomy winter with advance bookings substantially down on last year -- but they believe next season could see the green shoots of recovery.

The Bermuda Hotel Association is predicting a poor "Fall into Spring'' period, following a summer that has seen tourist numbers fall.

December and January are looking particularly grim at present, with occupancies well down on the same period in the previous year.

The news comes after the Department of Tourism September statistics showed more falls in air arrivals and bed nights -- pitching arrival figures towards a 21-year low.

But BHA executive director John Harvey said there was much room for optimism, despite the poor outlook for the months ahead.

He cited the extensive renovations going on at properties across the Island and a renewed energy within the BHA.

"Yes we did lose Marriott. The figures have shown that several members have done better as a result of that but there is still a significant way to go,'' he said.

"We need more members to be successful. The prognosis for the immediate future is not good, it looks like being a tough winter but we have got to focus and get an action plan ready for next year.'' BHA expects December to have an occupancy of 14.6 percent, down from 18.8 percent in 1999.

January last year recorded a level of 27 percent but this year, at present, has a projected figure of 13 percent.

The news is brighter for this month, with the accommodations represented by the BHA -- which represent 85 percent of the industry -- reporting 51 percent occupancy, compared to 50.6 percent last year.

BHA president Billy Griffith said the reservations at present were looking soft, adding that there was nothing that told them they "were going to make any great waves''.

Despite the poor outlook, Mr. Griffith said there were better times ahead -- particularly when looking at overall arrival figures.

"I have great belief that we have bottomed out. Certainly with everything everybody is doing we are definitely on the road. Many hotels have done better this year than they have in dozens of years.'' During the summer hotel occupancies have been reported to be some of the highest for years, but it has to be pointed out that the boost comes after the loss of 800 beds at the Marriott Castle Harbour Hotel.

BHA projections for November, December and January show a mixed picture between the major and small hotels, and cottage colonies. The reporting properties include the Fairmont Princess Hotels, Elbow Beach, Sonesta, Stonington, White Sands and Grotto Bay.

The major hotels fared better in November, with a slight rise in occupancies to 47.2 percent. Small hotels dropped by 3.4 percent to 66.1 percent and cottage colonies remained almost constant.

Figures in for last month show an overall fall in occupancies in BHA reporting members from 72.3 percent last year to 65 percent this year.

September arrivals figures Page 5