hopes for an improved summer blossoming.

By the end of the so-called high season, those hopes, at least in the last decade, have been ground into dust.

This year seems to have begun the same way. The Ministry of Tourism's marketing plan for North America, revealed in yesterday's newspaper, shows plans for spending in the Island's main market and new long term targets set.

Woven through the plan is the main goal -- to increase tourism air arrivals by 80,000 to 430,000, with the first 8,800 "new visitors'' planned for this year.

In the meantime, Shadow Tourism Minister David Dodwell has said Tourism Minister David Allen should resign if he fails to improve on last year's dismal tourism record.

Mr. Allen may not have to explain why he should not resign at the end of this year; the new direct flight from St. Louis should open up the Midwest region, the cruise-and-stay programme should also improve the number of regular visitors on the Island while the Tall Ships Race should drive up total arrival figures.

Mr. Dodwell is correct in saying that Mr. Allen has so far failed to deliver on his promises. The 500-day reports on tourism is longer on rhetoric than it is on solid achievements and the Island is losing more hotel rooms than it is gaining.

In the past, Bermuda has suffered from having insufficient flights to meet times of peak demand; this year the problem may be having insufficient beds because of the large number of hotel closures.

It is not certain that Mr. Dodwell is right in saying that Mr. Allen should resign if he fails to deliver improved numbers this year. Mr. Allen is still a new enough Minister to be able to claim he inherited tourism's problems from his predecessor, who is none other than Mr. Dodwell.

But Mr. Dodwell's point is well taken that no amount of marketing or flying visits by the Minister to Frankfurt, Cadiz, San Diego or San Antonio, will improve arrivals unless a good product -- which is within Bermuda's reach -- can be offered at a reasonable price -- which will require some sacrifice.

Long-time Tourism Minister C.V. (Jim) Woolridge could sell ice to the Eskimos and therefore was ideal for road trips. Mr. Allen may be more knowledgeable about tourism, but he is no Jim Woolridge in the charisma department. Mr.

Allen would do well to leave the selling to the salespeople and to put his focus on giving them a great product to sell.

It is of little comfort to know that Bermuda is not alone in facing these problems. The Caribbean is suffering from slow tourism growth as a whole, due to the same issue which afflicts Bermuda.

High costs, both for construction and for food and lodgings, are the major problem and deter major hotel chains from developing properties. That in turn makes it hard to advertise an island as the major chains are not spending money and the smaller owners cannot afford to.

Bermuda needs to take care that it does not fall any further into this trap; Mr. Allen should stay at home and worry about the big picture in order to ensure that it does not.