forecast for "below average'' storm activity this season.

Hurricane expert Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University says this year's season, starting on June 1, will see more activity than last year though it will be a "somewhat slow'' season.

His forecast predicts eight named storms of tropical storm intensity or greater, which will occur in the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico between June 1 and November 30. But only four of these, he says, will develop into hurricanes and only one will develop maximum sustained winds of 100 knots or more.

Hurricane Emily, which hit the Island in 1987, reached 75 knots maximum sustained winds at the US Naval Air Station with gusts of 101 knots.

Lt. Cmdr. James Bancroft of the US Naval Oceanography Command Facility, said yesterday Dr. Gray's predictions had been "dead on'' for many years.

"He's been incredibly accurate,'' Lt. Cmdr. Bancroft said. "But as we saw after a similar forecast prior to the 1991 season, Bermudians have to prepare for all eventualities.

"Dr. Gray's forecasts cover a broad area of time and space. Who's to say that many of these storms might not directly affect Bermuda? "All it would take is one category one or two storm, like Emily, to make the 1992 season a severe one for Bermuda. Complacency is our worst enemy. Let's be prepared again this year.'' Dr. Gray's 1992 forecast relies on three of five seasonal predictors which have been correlated to frequency and intensity of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Basin.

WEATHER WEA