`True' jobless rate pegged at six-percent
No attempt to measure Bermuda's true jobless rate has occurred since 1993, Bermuda's top statistician yesterday revealed.
Back then a comprehensive survey on household expenditure by the Statistics Department discovered that six percent of Bermuda's 35,000-strong workforce -- more than 2,000 people -- were unemployed.
Now Chief Statistician Janet Smith Bradshaw admits no "accurate'' measure had been carried out since, though she revealed she was to meet with Finance Minister Eugene Cox soon to draw up plans for a regular survey.
That would bring Bermuda in line with most other nations where governments measure jobs figures quarterly so policies are in tune with needs.
As recently as last month former United Bermuda Party Premier Pamela Gordon said her government had maintained an unemployment rate around 1.5 percent.
While in Opposition, the Progressive Labour Party regularly derided that number, saying the real rate of unemployment hovered around the six-percent mark.
It's a claim now given credence by the Island's top statistician, who told The Royal Gazette the rate quoted by the UBP government was based purely on the number of job seekers registered with the Employment Office, a method Mrs.
Smith Bradshaw dismissed as flawed.
"The only way to get an accurate picture of the unemployment rate is either in a census or in a household survey,'' she said.
"The last time we went out into the field and did one was in 1993, when in the course of the Household Expenditure Survey we found the true unemployment rate was around six percent.
"On the other hand, the Government Employment Office only has the numbers of people who register with them.
"The fact is that a lot of people don't register,'' she said. "For example, they might be happy to look for a job on their own so, that figure is not in any way a true and accurate representation of unemployment.' `Real' jobless rate a matter of statistics "bury their heads in the sand'' on the issue, often trumpeting an inaccurate figure of less than two percent.
"Without keeping track of exactly how many people and which sections of the community are having problems getting jobs, how could they say that? There's no way to compare the figure every quarter to see how we're doing.
"But more to the point, without measuring the real unemployment it is impossible to really address the problem and come up with meaningful solutions to improve Bermuda's economy and to help people in the community.'' And Mr. Cox said it was "naive'' to think a recent International Labour Office report -- that shows soaring global youth unemployment and more crime and drug abuse -- did not apply to Bermuda.
To gain a more accurate picture of the Island's real unemployment rate, said Mr. Cox, it is likely a survey of a sample of Bermuda's 22,000 households will be held either quarterly or half-yearly to find out exactly how many people are unemployed, so policies to help them can be put in place.
The Finance Minister also said he was looking at several such gaps in the official statistics gathered annually, but he commended the Statistics Department and said the fault lay with the previous government.
SURVEY SUR
