hurricane season this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), for the first time issued a pre-season forecast. In a press conference held last week in Miami, Florida, the NOAA said to expect at least three "intense hurricanes'' in the height of the season.

The season begins tomorrow, and according to Colorado State University scientist Dr. William Gray, four major hurricanes are anticipated, along with five milder ones and 14 storms.

The increased hurricane activity is being attributed to La Nina, which unlike its counterpart El Nino, brings cooler than normal temperatures to the portion of Pacific Ocean off South America. In El Nino, those waters experience warmer temperatures.

Forecaster David Forbes at the Bermuda Weather Service, said his views fall in line with the current predictions.

He added: "Bermuda is probably at no greater risk than any other year, for getting hit. It's an awfully big ocean out there and in the heart of the season the track is not really conducive to bringing a hurricane our way.

"We'll see a slightly increased chance of a hurricane in the early or late part of the season,'' he added.

Home Affairs Minister Paula Cox has chaired her first meeting of the Emergency Measures Organisation.

Until last fall, the EMO's meetings were chaired by the Island's various deputy governors, except most notably during September 1997's Hurricane Emily, when then Premier Sir John Swan took over the disaster relief.

Deputy Governor Tim Gurney said the change in policy occurred last year.

The EMO prepares for potential disasters and conducts table top and field exercises for a variety of disasters including hurricanes, which was the subject of the recent meeting.