by-election to replace C.V. (Jim) Woolridge in Smith's South should be a useful barometer on the state of the Island's political parties.

Smith's South has been a traditional United Bermuda Party stronghold, which Mr. Woolridge and his various running mates usually carried with ease at General Elections.

Three factors could make this by-election different.

One is the fact that Lt. Col. David Burch (now a Senator and the Premier's chief of staff) did well in the General Election, polling 563 votes to Mr.

Woolridge's 770 and Trevor Moniz's 720. That is a close call in Smith's South, where the majorities have usually been much larger.

The second is that Mr. Woolridge is not running. To what extent people voted for Mr. Woolridge as opposed to the UBP is uncertain. But Mr. Woolridge's deep roots in Smith's Parish, his ability to reach across race and class boundaries and his high visibility in the area will not necessarily translate to the new UBP canddiate, whoever it is,.

The third is Mr. Moniz's statement that there are no longer any safe seats, which is virtually inarguable.

That makes candidate selection tricky. The UBP appears to be pulled in a number of directions. It has a number of strong national figures who lost in the last General Election and who would have an immediate impact in the House, among them Jerome Dill and Yvette Swan.

But the UBP would also benefit from a new face representing the "new'' UBP, especially someone with strong local ties. Rightly or wrongly, the UBP will also be aware that replacing a black face with a white one, regardless of merit, will not help the party's efforts to be recognised as "the integrated party'' at the national level.

If the UBP has a tough challenge, the PLP faces an equally difficult one. Some of Sen. Burch's success came as a result of the tremendous momentum the PLP enjoyed in November, 1998. It is unlikely that the Government's popularity is as high now. Sen. Burch, who was best known then as a former Bermuda Regiment Commanding Officer, is best known now for his "we don't care what you think'' comment, which will hardly endear him to the 700 or so voters who rejected him in 1998.

Graeme Outerbridge, who has already declared for the National Liberal Party, is a possible wild card, but while he has had some success in the past in Smith's South, the NLP has virtually disappeared at the national level, except when talk of a merger with the UBP surfaced.

Regardless of who runs, this by-election will test the Government and Opposition's standing and will also give an indication of their readiness to fight a General Election.

After two-and-a-half years in power, an improved PLP performance or a victory will be a stunning affirmation of its policies. By the same token, an improved UBP performance will be seen as a sign that it is recovering from its crushing General Election defeat.

Overall, the PLP has less to lose since it can always say winning Smith's South was a long shot. The UBP, on the other hand, needs to add votes in order to show that it can attract disaffected voters who are unhappy with the Government's performance.