will be cut by half, is an indication of Bermuda's need to be careful about its future. There are many people today who will hope that Captain James Arnold has his prediction right.

A 50 percent cut in Kindley Field personnel is not Bermuda's worst fear. The real damage to Bermuda would be caused by closure of the base, leaving Bermuda to run its own airfield. Since the Second World War, Bermuda has been served by an airfield paid for and serviced by the United States military.

Bermudians are beginning to understand now that there is a chance the base could close, just how generous the United States Government has been to Bermuda, presumably in the interests of friendly and neighbourly relations.

Bermuda has enjoyed free airfield services for landing airliners bringing visitors on holiday. Base personnel have been like permanent visitors, spending a fair amount of their money in the local economy. Bermudians, more than 75 at last count, have had base jobs.

We think that most Bermudians simply take the presence of the bases as a given. This newspaper has long advocated the return of the US Naval Annex to Bermuda, because it has been virtually unused and Bermuda needs the space, but this newspaper also recognises the huge contribution of the Kindley Field base to Bermuda's economy.

Because of the value of Kindley Field to Bermuda and because its future has long-term implications for Bermudians, Sir John Swan has been visiting both Washington and London to press Bermuda's concerns. The Premier's contacts in the two capitals are of enormous value to Bermuda as US officials can so easily overlook Bermuda's needs when making decisions.

It has been standard procedure in the past for Bermudians to take the bases for granted and to assume that they would continue to service Bermuda's economy. The Progressive Labour Party was so sure that America would not leave its Bermuda bases that it risked angering the American Government and advocated charging the United States rent for leased land.

The truth is that we are a tiny country and we live in a fast changing and uncertain world. While Bermuda has survived well in the recession because its economy was handled with care, the US, Canada and Britain still have major economic questions. These are tough times and while there are signs of improvement we are not yet back on top.

Bermuda has to take every advantage it can of Britain's international expertise and America's good neighbour policies to get the best deal on the base. Solutions will not happen automatically or by accident. Bermuda is in the position of a Cow Polly talking to a whale. The Cow Polly has to have the experience to know where and when to move and just how to take advantage of the whale's basic good nature.

Contrary to what Captain Arnold says, this newspaper believes that the United States will eventually quit Kindley Field because of political pressures inside the US to do so. We understand Premier Sir John Swan is aware of that possibility but sometimes the public loses sight of the importance of the decisions being made and of the delicate nature of negotiations.

Bermuda is facing some of the most important decisions to be made since the Second World War. The decisions involve the future of Kindley Field but also the best use for Bermuda of Daniel's Head, which is now returned, and of the Naval Annex, which will surely be returned to Bermuda. Never again will Bermuda have the chance to put to its best use such huge areas of the Country.

The decisions which have to be made are complex and tough. Every Bermudian alive today will be affected as will generations to come.