Recent forecasts by meteorologists in Britain and America have predicted that this year's hurricane season will be quieter than was earlier feared.

The development came as the Bermuda Weather Service warned that the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal are expected to pass off to the Island's northwest today, possibly bringing gale force winds, choppy seas and thunderstorms (see map below).

Yesterday's evening advisory said the system, which had already begun to lose the features characteristic of a tropical storm, was expected to reach its closest point of approach today at 8 a.m., when it will be 165 nautical miles away.

As of press time last night, Cristobal was barrelling along in an east-northeasterly direction at 15 knots.

Dr. Mark Saunders and Dr. Paul Rockett, based at University College London in the UK, explained on the website www.tropicalstormrisk.com that cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger than normal Atlantic trade winds are expected to combine in ensuring below average activity for this season, which still has more than three months to run.

American meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the arrival of the weather phenomenon El Nino in the area will reduce the number of estimated hurricanes in the Atlantic from eight to six.

Between seven and ten tropical storms are expected overall, reported the Associated Press yesterday, while earlier estimates had forecast 13 storms.

As for Cristobal, Bermuda Weather Service meteorologist Mark Guishard said yesterday that inclement conditions may still be on the cards for today, as the remnants of Cristobal mix with a nearby cold front to produce unfavourable conditions.

He said a small-craft warning, followed by a gale warning, would be in effect for today, as the Island experiences sustained winds of between 25 and 35 knots, decreasing towards evening.

Mr. Guishard explained that seas outside the reef were expected to reach between eight and 12 feet.

He added that the bad weather expected today could bode well for conditions later on the weekend, with clearing skies and diminished winds forecast.