Weather forecasters in the United States are predicting above average hurricane activity this year and a very high possibility that the US mainland will be hit.

And forecasters in Bermuda say this increased stormy weather in the Atlantic will make it more likely that the Island could be struck by a storm or a hurricane.

Colorado State University Professor William Gray predicts this year will be the seventh successive year of increased hurricane activity and he says the lucky run of 19 straight hurricanes missing the US mainland should come to an end.

The average land strike over the past century had been 56 percent, but the academic, who is professor of Atmospheric Science, puts the likelihood of the US being hit this year at 86 percent.

This season he is predicting eight hurricanes as opposed to nine last year, four major hurricanes, the same as last year, and 13 named storms - two less than in 2001.

"A continuation of the recent seven year upturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity is expected. We anticipate significantly above average hurricane activity and US hurricane landfall probability," states Prof. Gray in his report.

"We expect 2002 to be nearly as active as the average of the last seven hurricane seasons and considerably more active than the average for seasons during the inactive 1970 to 1994 period.

"During the last seven years, our statistical schemes have significantly under-forecast active years. The last seven years have been the most active seven consecutive hurricane seasons on record."

Declan O'Connell of Bermuda Weather Service said yesterday: "All the conditions are ripe for a lot of hurricanes and for an above average number of hurricanes, but it is very hit and miss.

"Last year was predicted as being a little above average but it ended up being more active than forecast at the beginning of the year.

"In 1987 when Emily went over the Island and caused so much damage it was a hurricane season with seven tropical storms. This was a below average year yet we had a direct hit.

"The more storms we have forming around will increase the odds on one coming close to Bermuda."

Last year set a number of records for hurricane season, including the first time nine hurricanes have been formed after September 8.

It was also the first season with three hurricanes in November and the highest net tropical cyclone activity.

2001 also saw the first time that 19 consecutive Atlantic hurricanes - dating back to Irene in 1999 - have occurred without hitting the US landfall. The statistical chance of this is less that one tenth of one percent, says the report.