Property catastrophe reinsurance pricing may see a double-digit decline over the January renewals.

Artemis is reporting that analysts from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said the expected range for property catastrophe reinsurance pricing at the January 2026 renewals is from flat to down 15 per cent.

The estimates were made after analysts met with reinsurance executives during the just-concluded Reinsurance Rendez-Vous in Monte Carlo.

The analysts said retrocessional reinsurance renewals could see rates declining even more, Artemis reported, while in the insurance-linked securities market investors and fund managers could build their capital base further by rolling earnings into the new year.

The viewpoint is predicated on no major catastrophe events between now and renewals.

Analysts expected little in the way of movement in reinsurance attachment points, although with some targeted exceptions.

Artemis reported that KBW explained that: “Of course, persistent [even moderate] inflation means that nominally unchanged attachments have actually declined in real terms since the widespread and substantial January 1, 2023 increases, but reinsurers seem very comfortable with that, given the dramatic increase in the primary insurers’ share of catastrophe losses.”

The analysts said that while there is more willingness to write aggregate reinsurance covers, that is likely to be at attachment levels more remote than before 2023.