The ailing Communist dictator has suffered a health scare and celebrated his 80th birthday over the past fortnight, heightening international speculation over the future of the Caribbean island.

In fact, the Castro regime has already opened the door to international insurers with some business-friendly legislation aimed at attracting foreign investors.

David Ezekiel, chairman of the Association of Bermuda International Companies (ABIC), said Bermuda had many greater rivals than Cuba to worry about and he argued that "our real competition is ourselves".

Earlier this year, magazine published a piece headlined "After Fidel Castro's death, could Cuba become the next Bermuda?"

It cited work permit time limits and slow permit processing by the Immigration Department, as well as rocketing housing costs, as reasons why insurers might be tempted to leave Bermuda.

And it pointed out Cuba's advantages over the island ? including its greater land area and a larger population with a higher literacy rate than Bermuda's.

The authors were William J. Casey, chair of the International Insurance and Reinsurance Practice Group, of Duane Morris L.L.P., and Dr. Timothy Ashby, who works as an international business consultant for the same US company.

Mr. Ezekiel said Bermuda could not take its position as a top off-shore domicile for granted as competition grew for the island's large slice of the international business pie.

"A post-Castro Cuba would be the least of our worries, as it takes more than a promise of low taxes and friendly legislation to create a successful domicile," Mr. Ezekiel said.

"We already have serious competition out there in the shape of the Caymans, Dublin, Vermont, New York, North Carolina et al, and all of these and others are looking to get better.

"We have stayed ahead of the pack, and probably will for the foreseeable future, based on our legal system, regulatory framework, great infrastructure, professional expertise, quality of life and an advantageous tax structure. A lessening of any of these will undoubtedly bring the pack closer, so our real competition is ourselves."

Work permit time limits, which allow a nine-year maximum stay, and slow processing, have been a source of irritation for the international business community in Bermuda.

"Work permit difficulties and delays and other such barriers to doing business are certainly a factor which is taken into consideration in a domicile choice situation and we try and work closely with Government in stressing this point to those in charge of the process," Mr. Ezekiel said.

The theory that Cuba could threaten Bermuda's international business sector is nothing new.

Three years ago, Allied World Assurance Company's (AWAC) then-president and chief executive officer Michael Morrisson told magazine expressed how easy it would be for international companies to clear out of Bermuda.

"I think the harsh reality is that we mean a lot to the local economy here and we're very mobile in terms of our operations," said Mr. Morrisson. "Many financial services companies' assets are kept on computer discs, and there's little to stop them from leaving when governments make it hard to do business."

And he also suggested that post-Castro Cuba could be a viable alternative.

"Once he dies and that whole Communist group gets out of power, there you have a huge island with plenty of space and a very well-educated group of people," Mr. Morrison said.

In April, Mr. Casey and Dr. Ashby's piece in suggested: "For the insurance industry, Cuba could offer the same less restrictive, tax-advantaged business environment as Bermuda.

"The advantages of a formerly communist Cuba are numerous: the island is bigger in size, much more populous and closer to the US than Bermuda, and has a better educational system and higher literacy rate."

And the two experts pointed out how Cuba was already setting out its stall to lure foreign investors.

"Cuba began laying the groundwork to court foreign-based insurers (and other investors) in 1997 with the passage of its Decree Law 177.

"Written with the assistance of British and Spanish insurers, the law permits foreign-owned companies to compete with the nation's three state-owned insurers; sets out the terms under which insurance companies can be registered; and defines their activities.

"The law allows for the operation of brokers and agents, and establishes minimum capital investments and 'warranty funds' for various lines of insurance. Although no foreign-owned insurers are currently doing business in Cuba, Decree Law 177 has generally been seen as a blueprint for the industry's future in the country."

The piece addressed the question of why insurers might decide to leave Bermuda.

"One reason might be that Bermuda's Progressive Labour Party-supported laws currently make it more difficult for foreign employees to obtain work permits. Laws also limit to nine years the stay on the island of those who are granted work permits. Bermuda's small size and policies tend to favour natives and artificially inflate the housing market.

"Foreigners are restricted to buying only those homes in the top five per cent of market value ? those selling for more than about $2 million ? and rents are averaging about $10,000 monthly, raising foreign insurers' relocation costs to prohibitive levels.

"Bermudian housing costs are roughly four times more expensive than comparable ones in the United States. Only about four out of ten Bermudians own their own homes ? the lowest rate in the developed world.

"Unlike Bermuda, Cuba has a great deal of undeveloped land. Its sheer size ? 42,800 square miles ? overwhelms Bermuda's 21.5 square miles of land. Large firms and companies conceivably could strike deals that would allow them to create their own zonas francas (free-trade zone), where they could control rent and employee costs. Cuba also offers a much larger and potentially stronger pool of employees.

"For all of its economic ills, 99.8 per cent of those 15 and over are literate. Bermuda's literacy rate, for those of its 65,365 residents 15 and older, is 98 per cent."

Mr. Casey was travelling yesterday but commented briefly: "Certain people I spoke to in the industry agreed that a post-Castro Cuba could provide an excellent commercial opportunity for future trading for many of the reasons cited in the article."

We were unable to reach Dr. Ashby for comment.