Arch sees ‘no near-term impact’ on mortgage business from Trump order
As one of the largest private-sector insurers of mortgages in the United States, Arch Capital is the crosshairs of an executive order by US president Donald Trump that seeks to cut costs for homeowners.
However, on an earnings call yesterday, executives from the Bermudian-based insurer and reinsurer said they did not expect any immediate impact on their business from the president’s move.
Arch MI — comprising Arch Mortgage Insurance Company, United Guaranty, and Arch Mortgage Guaranty — generated underwriting income of $201 million in the third quarter, representing about one fifth of the group’s total net income for the July-through-September period.
The business had $477.2 billion of insurance-in-force — the outstanding principal balance of mortgage loans covered by Arch MI, before external reinsurance — at September 30, 2026, with US business accounting for 86.1 per cent of the total.
Asked by Bank of America analyst Joshua Shanker about the presidential order, Nicolas Papadopoulo, Arch’s chief executive officer, said: “We don’t see any near-term impact. I think the pilot is for new mortgages, and it’s going to take some time to implement. So as far as we’re concerned, we think mortgage remains a terrific business for us.”
The executive order, titled “Decreasing Housing Costs for the American People,” directs federal agencies to proactively cancel mortgage insurance on eligible future loans once their home equity reaches a certain threshold. This would apply to mortgages originated after the pilot programme launches.
Borrowers can already stop paying mortgage insurance when their loan-to-value reaches a specified level — the executive order would make the stoppage of premium payments automatic when that level is reached.
Francois Morin, Arch’s chief financial officer, stressed this point on yesterday’s call. He said: “People have the ability to cancel their MI if they reach certain LTV levels.
“So there’s nothing new there. I think they’re trying to have people realise that there’s this optionality. They want to encourage home affordability. And we’re fully supportive of that.”
The order appeared designed to create a mechanism to “get beyond the inertia of cancellation”, he added.
Mr Morin said Arch MI’s mortgage insurance product had been a “massive benefit” to homeownership in the US and was an integral part of the US housing ecosystem.
“Last year, we, through MI, we were able to support 75,000 first-time homebuyers in the US — we think that’s a very positive thing.”
