A noted US storm forecaster predicts the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will see nine hurricanes, but will not be as busy as last year’s record-breaking season. William Gray and the Colorado State University forecasting team say the six-month season will produce 17 tropical storms of which nine will be major hurricanes with sustained winds over 110 mph.

Dr. Gray believes if the atmosphere and the ocean behave as they have in the past, we should have a very active season, but is quick to add that this does not necessarily translate into storms that produce as much destruction as last year.

Meanwhile the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US government’s climate agency, are predicting between 13 and 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes and four to six of these becoming major hurricanes of Category Three strength or higher.

In 2005, the Atlantic hurricane season contained a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of these hurricanes were considered major, of which a record four hit the United States, including Katrina.

Dr. Gray and his team say warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favourable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively favour the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity.

“Warm water is the energy source for storms while favourable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm’s building cloud structure,” Dr. Gray furthers. “This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995.

“Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Ni|0xf1|o years of 1997 and 2002,” he adds.

With neutral El Ni|0xf1|o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions expected across the equatorial Pacific during the next three to six months, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center scientists say that neither El Ni|0xf1|o nor La Ni|0xf1|a will likely be a factor in this year’s hurricane season.

“Whether we face an active hurricane season, like this year, or a below-normal season, the crucial message for every person is the same: prepare, prepare, prepare,” says the director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center, Max Mayfield.

“One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season.”

The north Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and NOAA will issue a mid-season update in early August, just prior to the normal August through October peak in activity.

The north Atlantic hurricane seasonal outlook is a product of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Research Division.

The NOAA National Hurricane Center has hurricane forecasting responsibilities for the north Atlantic as well as the east Pacific regions.