probability of future natural catastrophes.

But what if the past was an unreliable guide to the future? That's one of the questions that will be put to the Island's insurance industry on Thursday by Bermuda Biological Station director, Dr. Tony Knapp.

Dr. Knapp, who is due to address a lunch meeting of the Bermuda Insurance Institute on Thursday, will review the work of the Bio Station's Risk Prediction Initiative, a joint programme between scientific and insurance communities aimed at improving their ability to predict global environmental change.

Against a backdrop of increased losses and more frequent catastrophes, Dr.

Knapp will examine the RPI's progress in translating science into a usable format for insurance and reinsurance companies.