Opinions divided over election date
As the clock ticks ever closer to the yet to be announced General Election and with the process of electoral reform far from complete, opinion is divided among ruling party supporters as to whether Government should call the polls under the current system or risk waiting until the eleventh hour when a revamped system is in place.
Government will likely find itself at a "competitive disadvantage" if it holds on to the goal of holding the elections under a revamped system, according to political scientist Walton Brown.
But some members of the Progressive Labour Party's (PLP) hierarchy are hoping that the polls will be held under the new system.
"I would be very disappointed if the work of the Boundaries Commission and Whitehall would not have been dealt with in time," said the PLP's public relations officer Glenn Blakeney who was contacted overseas and stressed he was speaking in a personal capacity.
"That (electoral reform) is singularly the most important thing that is to be achieved, without doubt."
Party chairman Neville Tyrell would only say that questions about the election can only be answered by the Premier.
Speculation has been rife that Premier Jennifer Smith will call an election to be held late this summer.
But Government is also keen to go to the polls under a single seat system and the process of electoral reform may take much longer than planned.
If an election is called for this summer it will have to be under the current dual seat system.
Mr. Brown told The Royal Gazette that in his view Government should call the general election earlier rather than later even if it means going to the polls under the current system.
Abolishing the system in which each constituency sends two members to the House of Assembly, in favour of a single seat system with equal sized constituencies has been a long held goal of the Progressive Labour Party (PLP).
The Boundaries Commission, which was empowered last summer to recommend the number of seats and boundaries of the constituencies under a single seat system, will be working on its report until at least the end of August, said Commission chairman Sir Frank Blackman this week.
Once that is done, it has to be debated in the House of Assembly and a copy sent to the British Government which will decide whether to hold a constitutional conference before making an order to change the system.
Government parliamentary whip Ottiwell Simmons said that the fact that the report was not yet complete was posing "some difficulty for everybody".
"All of us are waiting for the report then we will be in a better position," he said.
Stressing he was speaking in a personal capacity Mr. Blakeney said he was sure that Britain was aware of Government's desire to hold the next election under a single seat system.
But the possibility of further court action by the Association for Due Process and the Constitution to force a constitutional conference could also delay the process.
Since the process began more than a year ago, the Association has vigorously opposed the local and the British Government's handling of the matter, arguing that a conference must be held before changing the Constitution.
An attempt to stop the process by launching a legal challenge failed last year. But the Association secretary and prime mover, Warren Cabral, vowed to continue its campaign and threatened to go to court again.
Walton Brown said that the British Government will have to consider the fact that the association had submitted a petition with thousands of signatures which demonstrated they had "considerable support".
But Britain will also have to consider the fact that Government had a mandate to pursue electoral reform, he added.
Mr. Brown said he doubted whether any legal challenge will be taken up by the courts and indicated he was fairly confident that there will be no conference.
"I'd be very surprised if they (Britain) were to force a constitutional conference based on the submissions of Cabral's group."
Still, he said: "From a purely political standpoint I would argue that the Government should call an election sooner rather than later regardless of what system is in place."
Political commentator Rolfe Commissiong disagreed, saying that the current system will not help the party's chances at the polls.
"I am not altogether sure that with the decline of the popularity of the Premier and to a lesser extent, the party, victory would be as assured as with the revamped system," he said.
He believed that the PLP has a better chance of electoral success under the revamped system reasoning that the UBP's "ten to 12 safe or near safe seats will be whittled down to two or three".
Mr. Brown said that PLP supporters would accept it if the election is held under the current system. "As long as the public understand you've made an earnest effort and you didn't backtrack, it shouldn't be a problem."
While the election must be called by November 2003, leaving it until the final year means that Government loses the competitive edge and the Opposition will be on an equal footing.
"Once you're on a 12 month clock, it doesn't matter (when the election is called) because everyone is in election mode," Mr. Brown said.
