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Premier faces `true barometer of strength at November meet

Potential delegates at the ruling party's next annual conference are hoping that concerns about leadership will be resolved before Premier Jennifer Smith names the date for the general election.

Delegates, and the Progressive Labour Party (PLP) parliamentary group, will have to decide on key party posts if any challengers show up.

Former Environment Minister Arthur Hodgson is actively mulling another bid for party leader and members of the PLP's branch organisations are confident that the party will survive a leadership battle intact.

Branch heads are often obvious choices during the delegate selection process, which could take place as late as one week before the November conference.

Some branch chairpersons are concerned that the differences between Premier Jennifer Smith and the party's backbenchers have still not been resolved since a group of backbenchers asked her to resign in May.

"It's not the best situation you would want to go into an election with," said Rudy Daniels who heads up the Southampton branch organisation. "Hopefully by the delegates conference it will be resolved."

Asked whether the election should not be called until after the conference, he said that was at the Premier's discretion.

"I am just trying to be a good facilitator in the Southampton branch," he said. "One would like to think that the ideal situation is everybody moving forward with one mind and looking at the health and prosperity of the country rather than personal agendas."

Arthur Hodgson took delegates by surprise in 2000 when he challenged for the party leadership on the conference floor.

The Premier handily beat back the challenge by a margin of more than two-to-one. "Everybody had no time to really contemplate a new leader. And I don't think it was appropriate at that moment in the administration's tenure."

This time around things may be different - by some reports Mr. Hodgson has already been canvassing potential delegates and appears to be fine-tuning his campaign strategy.

Mr. Hodgson, however, is still not yet prepared to make any definitive statements about his political ambitions.

Charles Daniels, chairman of Mr. Hodgson's own Hamilton branch, declined to say whether he had been lobbied by any potential challenger, or whether he would support Mr. Hodgson. But he agreed that there was a lot of "behind the scenes strategising" going on.

"I know Mr. Hodgson is our branch MP and one of my jobs as branch chairman is to lend support to our MPs. I may have another branch MP who has another opinion. Whether I personally support Mr. Hodgson or not is immaterial," he said. "Right now I'm playing this one right down the middle."

He said the delegates conference will be a "true barometer" of how the party membership feel about the leadership and that he definitely wanted to be a delegate at this year's conference. "It's definitely going to be an interesting one."

"As things are unfolding right now I am getting more confident in the fact that something is going to be resolved. Whether it's going to lead to a change in the leadership I really cant say."

He said he could not tell how other delegates felt. "We recognise that there are things that need to be sorted out. It's really a question of how quickly it can be worked out before the next election has to be called."

He agreed with recent statements made by some dissident backbenchers that a PLP Premier and the party leader could actually be two different people. "I believe that is correct. The delegates can choose a leader but the actual premiership is selected by the leaders in Parliament and delegates do not have any control over that. So you could end up with a situation where someone may be selected as party leader but when the MPs select their leader it could be someone different."

Other branch heads declined to go on the record with their comments.

Mr. Daniels said some people felt that a new leader would "add direction and impetus" to the party.

"According to my calculations an election doesn't have to be called until next November. Yes, I realise we would be taking it down to the wire (but) we have got some things we need to do and I think we need some time before we take the public to the polls."