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Storm of controversy

Residents were too nonchalant about the storm which became Hurricane Karen, the director of the Bermuda Weather Service (BWS) said this week.

While the storm - which wreaked havoc across Bermuda and left some 20,000 homes without power was bad - Roger Williams said it might have been a lot worse.

Mr. Williams of BWS issued a statement to The Royal Gazette in response to a flurry of criticism directed towards the weather forecasters after the Island was bashed by the storm over October 10 to 12.

"Don't shrug off those watches and warnings and always prepare for the worst case scenario," Mr. Williams said.

His comments were supported by the director of the US National Hurricane Center, Max Mayfield, who backed BWS and its own call not to refer to Karen as a tropical storm as it formed.

"Just by looking at your images, I still think we did the right thing by not calling it tropical in the early stages," Mr. Mayfield wrote to BWS.

"Once it passed Bermuda, the system certainly looked like it had some tropical characteristics. I know that probably caused you some trouble once we started writing advisories."

He added: "I think that you will have people's attention next time you issue a storm warning."

Forecasters were criticised in the days after the storm - which at its peak on evening of Thursday, October 11 saw sustained winds of 58 - 65 knots and occasional gusts of 92 knots - for not issuing timely warnings and not recognising the storm as a hurricane.

Mr. Williams said despite the criticisms, residents were given ample notice by forecasters to prepare for the storm.

"(Letters) highlighted the apparent air of nonchalance with which many Bermudians treated first the gale warning issued Wednesday morning, and then the storm warning issues at 2 p.m. on Thursday," he said.

"Both warnings were widely disseminated via the media - sound bites through the day on Thursday with both VSB and ZBM radio. Both TV channels repeated the warnings in their evening news weather bulletins.

"The warnings were there on cable channel 4 (or 11 without the box) and also on our phone tapes and Marine Weather Channel 2 (courtesy of Harbour Radio)."

The storm was forecast, Mr. Williams stressed, although he admits the winds were 10 to 20 knots higher than BWS originally forecast.

"However, given the circumstances of the storm and its rapid development, we did not have that much to go on," he added.

"And, yes, at the end of the day, the good old barometer gave the clearest indication that something quite nasty was brewing up when it took its spectacular dive, starting just after noon on Thursday."

Shark oil too is monitored, Mr. Williams said of Bermuda's historical weather predictor of choice, and it went cloudy - but only on Thursday evening.

Based on the winds Bermuda experienced as a result of Karen, "the storm would rate as top end Tropical Storm/minimal Hurricane, Category One," Mr. Williams said.

The damage was considerably less than during Hurricane Emily in 1987 which was only category one, he added.

Mr. Williams also defended the forecasting team at BWS which were sarcastically pelted by arm chair critics after the storm.

One writer of a letter to the Editor in The Royal Gazette even suggested Bermudians might as well take "Weatherman 101" by standing on Bermuda College roof with a windsock and seeing if they get blown away to predict storms.

Another suggested Bermuda would be better off subscribing to the Weather Channel than BWS.

"Here at the Bermuda Weather Service, we do have a team of dedicated and professionally trained Bermudian meteorologists and weather observers," Mr. Williams wrote.

"However, we do not operate as a discrete entity. Bermuda is a tiny spot in the middle of the ocean with little observational data around us.

"Our forecasts are broadly based on interpretation of the various numerical computer models and guidance from the US National Weather Service, High Seas forecasts and the National Hurricane Centre/Tropical Prediction Centre in Miami (including the Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance reports, when available).

"Subsequently we fine tune our forecasts using satellite imagery and radar."

And Mr. Williams suggested that, in the face of inevitable storms in the future, the repositioning of Belco power lines underground should be revisited.