indicators are not positive. They are not negative, but everything is at a standstill.'' Economic indicators in the United States are certainly confusing. Generally, economists have been talking up the end of the recession but that end seems something of an illusion. Unemployment is up in the US and house sales which did go up a bit are now back down. Some of the confusion is caused by an election year and figures which are designed for voter consumption. Confusion is also caused by political uncertainty and the revolt of the silent majority against its usual leaders. The truth is that things are still bad in the United States, especially in the Northeast which is Bermuda's major visitor catchment area. In fact, US interest rates are being cut in an attempt to avoid a triple dip in this long recession and a third dip is still very possible. American economists are uncertain how to go because America has not been a debtor in recession before.

Bermuda is suffering a double problem. First there is the recession and then there is the fact that tourism is never bumper in a US election year because Americans stay home and tend to their politicking.

As Senator Winfield said, "Clearly this is not going to be the best summer.'' We think the summer is going to be followed by a much worse winter. Given extraordinary events we cannot control, we should have done our best to look after what we did have in terms of visitor business and visitor generated jobs. We did not do that and it is impossible to tell how much damage has been done. We will never know the extent of the damage but those visitors who humped their baggage to the airport in the pouring rain are still telling that story to their family, friends and workmates.

Until the events of last week, Bermuda was having a better year than we might logically have expected. It's tough but it is not unlivable.

Government's unpopular pre-recession budget put us in good shape to get through bad times. Visitor figures have not been as bad as they are in some competing areas. Inflation is mercifully low. Prices are high but thanks to careful marketing and strong local competition they are not unreasonably high given import duties. Despite the recession, major hotel renovations have gone on, notably at the Elbow Beach. Private enterprise has cooperated and, along with Government, has tried hard to keep people employed in construction jobs despite labour strife.

As a result, there are not as many people unemployed as we might have expected nor is Bermuda in as bad shape as some predicted. And, if we had behaved ourselves and made the best of what we had, things might have been better.

There is no room for complacency. The public must be careful not to despair in the wake of the past few weeks. This is not a good summer and we are already in mid-July. The winter is going to be a very trying time. It may well be the most difficult economic period Bermuda has suffered since World War Two. But Bermuda will survive this too and Bermudians can make it better if they will continue to try.