past few weeks. It has always been clear to us that Premier Sir John Swan, or any other premier, was unlikely to call an election too close to Christmas and the time now seems past for any pre-holiday poll. It also seemed unlikely that the Premier would call an election he did not have to have in the midst of a recession.

If we guess correctly, then there is unlikely to be an election before April or May. The ruling party will not want to go to the polls during depressed times and, traditionally, things are not so good in Bermuda in the visitor off-season. This year some hotels will be closed in the winter and there is always the unhappy problem of seasonal unemployment.

There can be little doubt that political parties prefer to have elections when the people have their pockets full. We must remember that Sir John Swan has more than a year to go before he must call an election and may well not be in any hurry, even preferring to wait until a year from now, hoping that Bermuda will have a good tourist season next summer and that the economy will be in recovery. A sitting premier has the advantage under the Westminster System of being able to call for a vote any time when things look good for his own party.

In the meantime, the Opposition PLP seems to have misread the election signs and decided that Bermuda would have a pre-Christmas vote. The PLP got quite excited, paid to publicise an incomplete array of candidates, and actually began to talk as if there were a campaign going on. In the process, the PLP seems to have announced some candidates it might not have chosen if there had been time to take care.

The PLP was unable to fulfil its promise of providing a full slate with new and dynamic candidates with the experience to run the Country and confirmed its lack of integration when it came up with the same one white face. Early this month the PLP leader Mr. Frederick Wade actually cancelled the PLP's delegates conference at Alaska Hall in favour of campaigning and told delegates to brace for an election. There were strong rumours that the conference would have to be cancelled anyway because of poor support. The Princess Hotel banquet went ahead and the invited speaker from the United Kingdom embarrassed her hosts by referring to the highly successful Bermuda as a Third World country.

The PLP seems to have made haste to get ready for an event to which they were not invited.

The UBP activity we all saw in the last few months appears now to have been the Premier putting the UBP on notice that he wanted the party to keep involved in the constituencies and to be fighting fit so that he is able to call an election at any time he feels it is advantageous. Clearly there was no intent to call an election before the UBP primaries were complete and by the time the St. George's South primary was over, we were getting very close to Christmas. Voters do not like an election which "upsets'' their Christmas.

It is never bad for the candidates, especially in tough times, to get out and listen to the people. Therefore, all of this getting ready will have had some real benefit. But an election in a recession? It was highly unlikely. It's our view that the PLP simply got the signs wrong and we would guess that there is no real chance of a vote until spring comes around. Time will tell.