to merge could be a mixed blessing for the Island.

The announcement that Celebrity is being bought by Royal Caribbean could mean that the Island will benefit from the increased marketing muscle that the larger company will now have.

But it also means that the fate of Bermuda's cruise industry will now rest in the hands of just two companies, the newly expanded RCCL and Norwegian Cruise Lines, which recently announced plans to buy the Royal Majesty .

If the two deals go though, it will mean that the two of the three ships which make weekly calls in Hamilton and St. George's -- Zenith and Song of America -- and the sole Dockyard caller Meridian will be owned by RCCL, while NCL will own the other Hamilton/St. George's visitor -- Dreamward -- and Royal Majesty , which exclusively serves St. George's.

In one sense that is good news. Celebrity, while it has worked hard to establish a strong identity in the cruise market and has developed a successful Bermuda run, has increasingly become a minnow in a sea of whale-sized cruise lines like Carnival and RCCL.

It's quite possible that Celebrity would have been unable to compete with the rest of the market in the current era of declining passenger rates, increased marketing costs and "mega ships'' which each cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build.

Now, under the wing of RCCL, Celebrity -- which will keep its own upscale identity -- has a better chance of survival and that's good for the Island, which depends on the line for many of its cruise visitors.

Tourism Minister David Dodwell is right to say that the merger is part of the consolidation now underway in the cruise industry.

If the move also makes RCCL stronger in relation to Carnival, then it is surely very good for Bermuda, which it will benefit from a stable partner.

But the flip side is that the Island runs the risk of putting most of its eggs in one basket. Should RCCL decide at some point that it should pull back from Bermuda or focus its best ships elsewhere, then the Island could be put in a vulnerable position.

Equally, the line could use its muscle to demand changes in the current cruise ship policy by demanding an end to the St. George's visits or by demanding that Bermuda increase the ceiling on the number of visitors.

Celebrity had already done this to some extent when it persuaded Government to allow the Dockyard caller to call in Hamilton for one night a week as of next year. Now RCCL will have far more strength at the negotiating table.

Many people will recall the rapid departure of Home Lines from Bermuda and the scramble which followed to replace the berths lost. And it was Bermuda that paid the price when it became overly dependent on airlines like Eastern and Pan Am which later collapsed.

It is important that Bermuda keep up a level of competition in both the cruise and airline worlds and this latest merger -- while beneficial in some ways -- could prove to be dangerous in the long run.