This year's tourist season is shaping up to be slightly ahead of last year's abysmal performance, according to local hotels, airlines and tour operators in the United States.

Wholesale tour operators are divided over whether the slowdown in the US economy will affect bookings to the Island.

But all are confident of a strong season and are predicting they will be ahead of last year when visitor numbers hit a 21-year low of 543,126 -- down 1.54 percent on 1999.

A Bermuda Hotel Association (BHA) survey of 17 properties found that as of April 10, bookings for that month are showing 61.3 percent occupancy, compared to 70 percent last year.

May is showing 67 percent, down two percent on last year, and June is five percent off at 62 percent.

BHA President Billy Griffith told The Royal Gazette he was upbeat about matching last year and possibly improving.

"With the late percentage pickup there was, there is no reason to believe we can't achieve in April this year what we did last year,'' he said.

"May and June indicate a level of business similar to last year. July, August and September are still a bit early to tell, but it's not a cakewalk.

"There is no easy business, but for the immediate future, I'm reasonably optimistic of doing at least as well as last year.

"There is stuff happening in the third quarter like the Jazz Festival and the Fishing Festival.

"There are less hotel rooms this year, and there is resistance to the air fares, but May and June are always solid months of the peak season and we do some decent business.

"The challenge is the upcoming fall-to-winter period where we were softest last year.'' Mike Norton of GoGo Vacations in New Jersey, the largest wholesaler selling Bermuda vacations in the US, said bookings are up nine percent on last year.

"Overall, our business is going up, but with some softness in May and June,'' he said.

"Now we are nine percent up on last year. We did some early advertising in February or March which we think has helped.'' Maribeth Kindred, of TNT Vacations in Boston, the third largest wholesaler dealing with Bermuda, said bookings were down now, but she is predicting around 12,000 visitors -- ten percent up on last year.

By March, bookings were 40 percent down on last year, and were currently running five percent behind 2000.

When asked if talk of a recession in the US was affecting bookings, she said: "Yes. There is talk of economic slowdown and people are waiting to see what will happen.'' She gave Bermuda's current high-end marketing strategy the seal of approval.

"I think they're moving in the right direction and the way they are promoting Bermuda is smart -- it's about value rather than discounting and we are tailoring our marketing to fit in with what they are doing.'' But she said more work needed to be done to provide added value for holiday-makers, such as discount vouchers for amenities.

Magic Carpet Vacations in Boston have been marketing the Island for the past four years and report a steady increase in business.

The company's managing director Tracy Santangelo said winter bookings were up 43 percent on last year and summer was up 19 percent.

"Bermuda is our number one destination and business is up already and I feel that we're going to have a very strong season.

"We've seen fairly steady increases in the past four years. We're promoting the Jazz Festival and bookings are already coming in.

"We've been advertising in Boston Globe and contacting travel agents in New England, and it seems every call we're taking is Bermuda. It's very encouraging.'' She said she had not felt the impact of a recession in the US and was booking other "top dollar'' vacations in the Caribbean.

Michael Williams, managing director of the Pink Beach Club, said: "I don't think we'll break any records this year judging by the forward bookings we've got so far.

"In May our occupancy is usually in the high 70s and high 80s for June, July and August.

"I hope we can improve next year, but a lot depends on the US economy and a feeling of confidence there.

"I think it probably has affected us now. It's easy to say our guests aren't affected by the slowdown because they are well off, but I don't think that holds 100 percent of the time. The general feeling of success is not there this year.'' US Airways, which runs the most flights to Bermuda from North America, say bookings for May to September are up five percent on last year.

The airline's Bermuda station manager Earl Basden told The Royal Gazette : "The visitor business can maintain its present rate or increase and Government is moving to open up future hotels.

"Without the bed space, we can't do anything other than maintain present rates.''