decline, Government figures indicate.

For the first time since December, 1990, Bermuda has recorded five straight weeks of positive growth in arrivals.

Airport visitor arrival figures for the week ending on Sunday showed that 1,096 more people arrived on the Island than during the same week last year -- a remarkable 19.3 percent increase.

It was the fifth consecutive week arrivals increased over the previous year, when the recession took firm root on the Island.

Despite the visitor upswing, Finance Ministry sources counselled caution.

Although tourism was beginning a "gentle turnaround'', they said the market was still subject to huge visitor swings that have characterised the arrivals picture this year.

Forecasts indicate that 1992 arrivals could finish a few percentage points below 1991, one of the Island's worst tourism years.

Chamber of Commerce president Mr. Louis Mowbray said the depth of Bermuda's recession was more clearly seen if comparisons were made with the tourism industry's performance in 1990.

Figures show that the Island received 48,000 more regular visitors that year than during the same period this year.

And while arrivals may surpass last year's figure, indications are that visitor spending -- the bottom line measure of the industry's performance -- will be off as much as ten percent this year. That result could significantly hurt Government's revenue plans and the balance sheets of hotels and related businesses such as shops and the transport sector.

But Mr. Mowbray last night said he thought Bermuda's recession had bottomed out.

"I'm reasonably positive about the prospects for next year,'' he said. "I don't think it will be a dramatic year, but we'll certainly hold our own. 1993 will be slightly above 1992.'' Mr. Mowbray said his guarded optimism was partly due to the recent US election result.

"People are generally feeling positive about (President-elect) Clinton,'' he said. "If that keeps going, we ought to see some firming up in the US economy.'' The Chamber president also pointed to upcoming pre-Christmas shopping promotions and the Tourism Department's winter initiatives to boost arrivals.

"These will help us hold the line,'' he said.

Mr. Louis Mowbray.