sources say the hotel will be 71 percent full tomorrow and 75 percent full on Saturday -- enough business to trigger the Bermuda Industrial Union threat of a three-day strike.

A hotel spokesman last night said incoming guests had been informed of the possibility of labour disruption.

And BIU president Mr. Ottiwell Simmons MP said a strike would go ahead.

At the centre of the dispute is Elbow's plan to establish a new worker-management relationship without the union.

The new deal put to workers last month includes a move away from a contract guarantee of full employment if the hotel reaches 70 percent occupancy.

The hotel spokesman said guests had been assured "we will continue to operate and hope to provide equal service''.

It is understood hotel management has held meetings to set up contingency arrangements in the event a strike occurs.

"We feel we've got some support from the employees, and for those who feel obliged to stick with the union, well that's great,'' the hotel spokesman said. "We hope the employees don't go out. We don't think it's good for anybody.'' Mr. Simmons said after meetings with union officials that the strike would go ahead.

"A strike vote has been taken and at a subsequent meeting the strike vote was reconfirmed,'' he said.

"This Friday there is a meeting of all Elbow Beach workers at the union and if the hotel reaches 70 percent a strike will take place.'' Other aspects of the new deal include arrangements for quarterly profit-sharing and the establishment of a worker-management board to hear grievances. The strike at Elbow is a critical test for the union which has seen its presence challenged at other properties.

The hotel, one of the biggest on the Island, can employ up to 300 workers.

Staff union dues, which the hotel has stopped collecting and sending to the union, can amount to more than $8,000 a month.

Elbow Beach, which is managed by US-based Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, employed between 100 and 120 workers through the winter. It currently has 180 employees working.

The union strike threat was issued on March 19, just days after the Labour Minister referred the issue to a disputes settlement board.