Last minute US vacationers are making life unpredictable for Bermuda hoteliers.

Increasingly, the Island's main holiday market from the US east coast is eschewing long-term planning for their breaks -- instead waiting until just days before to book.

And the uncertainty is forcing hotel management to rethink their occupancy strategy in the face of a changing market -- which believes a last minute deal may save money and isn't concerned that they may not get into Bermuda.

Sonesta resident manager John Murtha believes the consumers are simply exercising their dollar power.

"It used to be that if people wanted to come to Bermuda they would have to book six months in advance, or they knew they wouldn't get in,'' he said.

"Now if they don't get in they will go to Orlando, they are not bothered if they can't get in.

"Bermuda is a place people want to go to but are not committed to going this year. They don't feel the urgency because they know we will be around.'' Southampton Princess general manager Norm Mastalir said the change in trends was worldwide.

People leading busier lives leave their holiday planning late and as there is a wide choice of destinations, they are not concerned that places may be unavailable. Work and family commitments also mean long-range timing is not an option.

In addition, with less holiday time than their European counterparts, the North Americans tend to take shorter breaks, often over a weekend, which can be organised in less time.

And many are making plans to go to two places, and taking the one that offers the best deal at the last minute.

"As an industry we have to learn how to manage the trend and get better at forecasting,'' said Mr. Mastalir. "It is going through a period of transition and we need to have an understanding. Everybody feels the same.

"People just don't plan ahead like they used to. It does make it a little hard to forecast.'' Consequently, Southampton Princess' August occupancy levels are standing at 70 percent, compared to a 1998 level of 74.6 percent -- but the picture is likely to be different by the end of the month.

One reason is the reduction in group bookings, a market which the Princess relies upon. But although this summer has seen less conventions and groups, next year is looking much more healthy.

"We don't know the reason but it is looking better for next year already.

Sometimes the conventions business is cyclical. It is not suggesting anything long term, we just don't have the group business this year.'' Mr. Mastalir said most hoteliers he had talked to were in a similar position and were finding it hard to predict how their rooms would fill.

Sonesta's August bookings are looking pretty healthy -- around 80 percent -- and Mr. Murtha is also expecting a last minute rush similar to the one that bolstered this month's figures.

"It is a problem we are going to have to get used to,'' he said.

"Historically Bermuda could pretty much say June, July and August would be strong months, we could see patterns developing.

"Now it is almost as though we are waiting week on week to see what is happening.'' The travel industry has given consumers the belief that the later you book, the better the price, which can be true, he said.

In addition the Internet has opened up more opportunities, offering people the chance to view thousands of deals worldwide.

Newstead owner Anthony Goodfellow, whose hotel is undergoing renovations, concurred.

He said their European visitors were tending to book much further ahead than those from the western side of the Atlantic.

"The period of pre-booking is getting shorter and shorter each year,'' he said.

Following a fully booked July, he said August bookings were currently looking "moderate''.