Party's US polling firm.

For it is understood the latest national polls conducted for the UBP show Ms Gordon's personal popularity is about 20 percent higher than her predecessor, David Saul -- and rivals long-serving ex-Premier Sir John Swan's rating at his peak in the 1980s.

And her party's popularity has also improved by some five or six percent to more than 50 percent, according to sources.

A source confirmed: "The popularity of the party has shifted, although not to where Pam Gordon's is.

"If you see a shift of 20 percent in a leader's popularity, you are going to shift the party's popularity.

"If you get a four to five percent increase and you are over 50 percent, you cannot say an election is in the bag, but you know you are on the right track.'' Ms Gordon last night could not be reached for comment., The results are in stark contrast to polling conducted before the resignation of Dr. Saul earlier this year, which showed the UBP would win an election -- but only by the skin of its teeth.

Sources said Ms Gordon's personal popularity was some 20 percent higher than Dr. Saul's -- which was said to be around 60 percent.

The telephone surveys, conducted by opinion-gatherers Penn & Schoen, also showed the UBP would at least retain its existing majority of 22-18 in the House of Assembly.

It is understood the polling took place in September in the wake of the so-called Irving Pearman affair and the resignation of Police Commissioner Colin Coxall, two events which could have affected the UBP's popularity.

And it is thought that reactions to the row over allegations that Environment Minister Irving Pearman had written cheques to alleged drug dealers would show up most clearly in constituency tracking polls conducted in conjunction with the national polls.

Mr. Pearman maintained that cheques were written to the men for gardening and yard work.

Details of the constituency polls could not be obtained by The Royal Gazette yesterday. Editorial : Page 4