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Tammy strengthens to Cat 2 but weakening still forecast

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Hurricane Tammy at 6pm on October 25 (Image from the Bermuda Weather Service)

Hurricane Tammy reached Category 2 strength as it continued to drift towards the island, but it is expected to weaken in the coming days.

The latest forecasts show the storm slowing to Bermuda’s east this weekend, and then potentially turning northeast instead of continuing to the island.

However meteorologists have noted Tammy has proved “challenging” to predict.

Owen Darrell, the acting Minister of National Security, said that it was important for the public to be on alert for a potential impact from the storm.

“It is essential for everyone to be aware and stay updated on the storm's advisories as it approaches our island,” Mr Darrell said.

“Our ministry, in collaboration with the Emergency Measures Organisation, is closely monitoring this storm and encourages everyone to do likewise so that we are all prepared to respond effectively should the need arise.”

He urged the public to monitor the storm’s progress through the Bermuda Weather Service and ensure they are prepared with a family emergency plan in place and essential supplies are available.

As of 6pm last night, the storm was still about 507 miles east-southeast of the island and moving northeast at 14mph. The BWS said the storm’s closest point of approach within the next three days was expected to be 180 miles east of the island at 3pm on Saturday.

The weather service warned the storm could come closer to the island after that time.

Forecasts suggested the system will lose strength and stall as it nears the island, falling back to tropical storm strength before the weekend.

The BWS forecast said this morning: “Strong northeast winds continue as a result of a pressure squeeze between high pressure ridging to the northwest and Hurricane Tammy to the distant south.

“Convergence between the two features will bring patchy cloud and a few blustery showers.

“Winds will likely increase to gale force on Thursday as Tammy draws near and transitions into a post-tropical cyclone. Hazardous surf and rip currents develop with building easterly swells.”

Belco has started its own preparations for the storm and has urged the public to do likewise.

According to a company statement: “While the time for arranging a scheduled power outage with Belco for tree trimming prior to Hurricane Tammy’s arrival has passed, customers are reminded that the most important action residents can take to prepare is to ensure trees on their property are clear of power lines.

“During the high winds from three previous storms impacting Bermuda this season, Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Idalia and Hurricane Lee, most outages were caused by foliage and loose debris hitting power lines.

“Ensuring that trees on private property remain 10ft away from power lines is the sole responsibility of property owners.”

The company said that if Hurricane Tammy causes outages, restoration crews will start work to restore power as soon as it is declared safe to do so.

Wayne Caines, Belco president, added: “Bermuda has certainly had a busy storm season this year, and the latest forecast from the Bermuda Weather Service is for Hurricane Tammy to possibly impact the island by the end of this week, thankfully as a weakened tropical storm.

“Our team at Belco are well prepared and closely monitoring the storm and our Crisis Management Team will be meeting frequently until the threat has passed.

“Once the storm has passed, Belco staff certainly appreciate the patience and understanding of the public as we work to get everyone’s power restored as quickly and safely as possible.

“I encourage the public to be safe, trim their trees, secure any loose items on their property, and review their own hurricane safety plans as well as tips and advice on the Belco website.”

The National Hurricane Centre said at noon that the storm’s path was expected to take a northward turn today, followed by slower movement to the northwest tomorrow and on Friday.

“Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105mph with higher gusts,” the NHC said.

“Gradual weakening is expected for the next few days. Tammy is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Thursday.

“Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.”

The probable spread of tropical storm force winds over the next five days (Image from the US National Hurricane Centre)

The 2023 hurricane season has been forecast to be busier than usual as warmer-than-normal water temperatures offset El Niño, a weather phenomenon known to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated in its mid-season forecast that the season could include 14 to 21 named storms, of which between six and 11 could reach hurricane strength.

Of those storms, it is estimated that two to five could become major hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength with winds of 111mph or greater.

So far this season, the Atlantic has recorded 20 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which became major hurricanes.

• UPDATE: This article has been updated with comments from the Acting Minister of National Security and Belco.

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Published October 25, 2023 at 9:33 am (Updated October 25, 2023 at 10:15 pm)

Tammy strengthens to Cat 2 but weakening still forecast

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