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Conditions could lead to blockbuster hurricane season

Waves batter John Smith's Bay as Hurricane Lee passes the island last year. (Photograph by Akil Simmons)

A US meteorologist has warned that the 2024 hurricane season could be a “blockbuster”.

While the start of the season is still months away, AccuWeather said in a recent article that historically warm waters in the Atlantic and the possible return of La Niña could translate to a busier-than-usual season.

Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist for AccuWeather, said La Niña is expected to come into place in the second half of the season, reducing wind shear known to disrupt hurricane development.

While La Niña is not expected to come into effect until late summer or the fall, AccuWeather warned that it could potentially contribute to a busy back half of the season.

It noted that La Niña conditions played a role in the 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons, which were the busiest hurricane seasons on record.

The AccuWeather article added: “The timing of the onset of La Niña could also dictate whether this upcoming season will be similar to the 2020 season, or if the number of tropical systems will fall short of historic levels.”

2024 Hurricane Names

The names of storms for this year’s hurricane season will largely match that of the 2018 season, except for the replacement of Florence and Michael.

Florence was replaced with Francine, while Michael was replaced by Milton.

This year’s names are: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.

Any additional storms would have their names selected from a supplemental list.

Mr Porter also noted that unseasonably warm waters have been recorded this year in the Atlantic’s main development region, with temperatures 65 per cent hotter at the end of January than the next closest year.

Warmer waters are known to fuel storm development and lead to more frequent and more powerful tropical storms and hurricanes.

This month, waters in the region were at temperatures usually recorded in mid-July and are expected to warm more during the spring and summer.

Mr Porter added: “Any storms that do form will have the potential to rapidly strengthen, even close to land, due to the exceptionally warm waters.”

The 2024 hurricane season will begin on June 1 and continue until November 30. However, tropical storms and hurricanes can form outside that window.

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Published February 29, 2024 at 2:00 pm (Updated March 01, 2024 at 9:00 pm)

Conditions could lead to blockbuster hurricane season

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