Fewer 2019 hurricanes predicted by Colorado state
American scientists have predicted fewer hurricanes this season, but more major storms.
Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science estimated 13 named storms and five hurricanes for this year.
The average number of storms is 12.1 and the average number of hurricanes is 6.4.
The university warned that it was “impossible to precisely predict” hurricane activity so early in the year and that just one could wreak havoc across a wide area.
The forecast writer said: “We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem.
“There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season.”
The forecast added that cooler waters and the powerful El Niño system in the Pacific could play a factor this year and hinder Atlantic basin storm formation.
The writer said: “The current weak El Niño event appears likely to maintain intensity or perhaps even strengthen during the summer and fall.
“The tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is quite warm, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool,” the forecast writer explained.
The forecast added that there was still “considerable uncertainty” about what sea surface temperatures will be for the peak of the season, a key factor in hurricane formation and strength.
The writer added: “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.