Bermuda received a lot of good economic news last week, confirming that the Bermuda economy is emerging from “The Great Recession”, some seven years after the stock market crash of late 2008.

Much of the positive news was encapsulated in an excellent analysis in Saturday’s Royal Gazette, but for those who may have missed it, the positive news included:

• Real economic growth in the third quarter of 2015 of 4.4 per cent — the third consecutive quarter of growth.

• Improved balance of payments, partly because of the decline in oil prices which also lowered prices for a range of goods and services — inflation in October was just 0.6 per cent.

• An earlier report of strong retail sales in October (thank you, America’s Cup), the eleventh consecutive month to record an increase in the volume of sales.

Also released was the executive summary of the Labour Force Survey, and here the news, while positive, was more nuanced.

One of the signal features of this recession around the world has been how jobs growth has lagged behind economic growth. The same is true in Bermuda.

Typically, unemployment is measured by the number of people who file for benefits or unemployment insurance. Bermuda does not offer unemployment benefits, so that cannot be used as a measure.

Instead, the Labour Force Survey takes the estimated working population and subtracts the number of people in work to determine the number of unemployed. So it is an estimate — as good an estimate as we are likely to get, but still an estimate.

The number of filled jobs in 2015 fell by 37 jobs or 0.1 per cent between August 2014 and August 2015. In statistical terms, that means the number of jobs was flat, which in itself is positive after almost 500 jobs were lost between 2013 and 2014.

In the meantime, the unemployment rate fell from 9 per cent to 7 per cent.

Because the Bermudian workforce is shrinking as more people (baby boomers) leave the workforce than are coming into it, the result of a decline in the birth rate which started more than 20 years ago and whose effects are being felt now.

Thus, the available labour force in 2014 was estimated at 36,927. In 2015 it was 36,028 a decline of 2.4 per cent. Because the workforce shrank faster than the drop in jobs filled in 2015, the unemployment rate fell as well.

Digging deeper into the numbers, some other statistics stand out. The number of non-Bermudians in work increased by 377, but the number of Bermudians in work fell by 413.

On the surface, this may look like Bermudians being replaced by non-Bermudians, which would be political dynamite, especially in a recessionary environment. But in fact it reflects the long-term trend of a declining birth rate, and the idea that one Bermudian leaving the workforce can be automatically replaced by another is simplistic.

Nonetheless, it is worrying that Bermudians are not getting employed as fast as non-Bermudians. Although the number of unemployed in all but one age groups declined, unemployment among 16-24 year olds remains high at 23 per cent, or almost one in four. That is better than the 28 per cent recorded in 2014, but is still far too high and Bermuda runs the risk of creating a group of people who have never worked and will become unemployable over time. That’s bad for them and bad for Bermuda.

Also bad for Bermuda is the continued racial divide, with an unemployment rate of 9 per cent among blacks and 4 per cent among whites. To be sure, in 2014, black unemployment was 12 per cent, so it has declined by a quarter, while white unemployment has actually increased, but the social ramifications are serious.

Male unemployment also remains higher than female unemployment at 8 per cent compared to 5 per cent. Female unemployment decreased by three percentage points compared to 2014 and the number of working females increased. By comparison, male employment fell slightly.

None of these patterns are new in Bermuda, and the long-term causes are familiar. The fact that black males tend to be less highly educated than other demographic groups is the primary reason that this section of the population is experiencing higher levels of unemployment.

This educational disparity was masked when Bermuda’s economy, and especially the construction sector, was booming, because relatively unskilled but well paid jobs were there for the asking. With the virtual collapse of construction some four years ago, unskilled or low skilled males in their 20s and early 30s are those most vulnerable. And what skills they do have are not very transferable.

The long-term answer to this is obvious. As Tony Blair, the former British Prime Minister, once said, his top three priorities were education, education and education. Nothing has changed.

Although the employment figures suggest the job market has finally reached a bottom, and there are real signs of recovery, the likelihood of jobs growth is still uncertain.

At the top end of the market, the wave of reinsurance mergers over the last 18 months is likely to see continued job reductions in that vital sector. Although there are signs of an increase in new businesses setting up, it is not yet clear if they will be sufficient to replace the jobs being lost.

Much hope is being pinned on hotel construction, but until ground is broken in St George’s, at Morgan’s Point and elsewhere, those chickens cannot be counted.

More broadly, the move to utilise technology and automation continues apace and in the short term this may lead to job losses. In the long term, it is necessary if high-cost Bermuda is to be competitive, but it will mean that job and skill requirements will become more and more demanding.

The America’s Cup has had a significant impact, but was never going to create thousands of long-term jobs — its effect was and is to kick start the economy and put Bermuda back on the map for tourism and international business.

What may make the difference is the increase in confidence, both among consumers and business owners. If consumers spend more, businesses expand and hire. If businesses are confident, they expand and hire, and create their own virtuous circle. There are signs of growing confidence, so 2016 should see the long-awaited expansion in jobs, but its growth has to be carefully nurtured.

Bill Zuill is a director of Bermuda Executive Services Ltd, named by The Bermudian magazine as Bermuda’s best employment agency in 2015. This and other columns can be found on www.bermudaemployment.com